The Political Bridge

Examining the Data on Retail Holiday Sales for 2009: Are Happy Days Here Again for American Merchants? byDrTed

Most major media outlets herald a report showing that holiday sales were up this year. As noted by the  Associated Press: "Holiday shoppers spent a little more this season, according to data released Monday, giving merchants some reason for cheer. Retail sales rose 3.6% from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, compared with a 3.2% drop in the year-ago period."

Happy days are here again! Or are they?

Below are a few significant caveats to the Associated Press story:

1)    These reports are estimates and not hard data from the Commerce Department and retailers (NPR). The government will report these real numbers concerning holiday sales in mid-January.  

2)    As noted by SpendingPulse, (which calculated the widely-reported holiday sale estimates):”Tempering these (holiday sale) results, however, is the fact that there was an extra day this year over last year’s holiday season. Adjusting for this could decrease the season’s year over-year-growth statistics by anywhere from 2% to 4%.”

3)    SpendingPulse (an affiliate of Master Card) does not provide a comprehensive analysis of retail sales. Data included in its analysis are for sales in the electronics, specialty (apparel), and Ecommerce and luxury sectors of the retail economy. 

4)    Ecommerce (which does not help local merchants or most state revenues) was the big winner this year, with seasonal sales up 15.5% during the period.

5)    Kamalesh Rao, director of economic research at Spending Pulse, cautioned that a consumer return was tentative and far below 2007 level New York Times.

6)     Reuters reported that “an unprecedented 22 percent of U.S. consumers said they did not finish their Christmas shopping this year.   "This is the lowest number of consumers finishing shopping in all my 26 years of tracking retail sales during the holiday season," Beemer said. (Mr. Beemer is the founder of the consumer research and marketing firm—America's Research Group.)

Based upon these caveats, I cannot conclude that the 2009 Holiday Sales provided much holiday cheer to American merchants.    

 

Can you?

Daily Finance.com: It's Garbage In and Garbage Out for Many Economic Indices

From the December 29, 2009 issue of Daily Finance.Com

Statisticians acknowledge that the collection process overstates both GDP and productivity. Because investors, companies and the government all rely on such statistics, flawed data could result in poor investment and business decisions.

Susan Houseman, senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, was a participant in a recent conference on the problem. "We don't have the data-collection structure to capture what's happening in a real-time way, or what's being traded and how it's affecting workers.

To read more of what Dr. Houseman has to sayDownload Houseman-kurz-lengermann-mandel-final

The Washington Post: The Jobless Tsunami Will Empty State Coffers

By Peter Whoriskey

Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 22, 2009

 

The recession's jobless toll is draining unemployment-compensation funds so fast that according to federal projections, 40 state programs will go broke within two years and need $90 billion in loans to keep issuing the benefit checks.

 

Currently, 25 states have run out of unemployment money and have borrowed $24 billion from the federal government to cover the gaps. By 2011, according to Department of Labor estimates, 40 state funds will have been emptied by the jobless tsunami.

 

To read more click Jobless Tsunami

America's Underemployment Rate for November 2009 is over 17%

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part   time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all   marginally attached workers:      

  Nov 08: 12.2%

  Nov 09: 17.2%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The National Retail Federation Data Provide Mix Hits on Black Friday Weekend 2009

(Media outlets and blogs are mostly putting a positive spin on this news. I disagree with that spin, but I don't see this news as overly negative.  Looks like the economy and consumer spending are in holding patterns...)

From Investment Advisor.com

According to a survey conducted by the National Retail Federation over the weekend, 195 million shoppers hit the malls and other retail outlets over the Black Friday weekend, an increase of 23 million over last year’s shoppers.

The increased number of bargain hunters did not translate into bigger sales, however, although the average shopper did spend $343.31 and the overall total was estimated at $41.2 billion. Those figures represent a significant drop from the $372.57 average and $64 billion total seen over the same weekend in 2008

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rates Increased in October for Nearly 60% of the States

REGIONAL AND STATE EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -- OCTOBER 2009(Data Released on November 20, 2009)

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed or higher in October. Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 13 states registered rate decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The national unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October, up 0.4 percentage point from September and 3.6 points from October 2008. In October, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 28 states and the Dis-trict of Columbia, decreased in 21 states, and remained unchanged in 1 state.  The largest over-the-month increase in employment occurred in Texas (+41,700),  followed by Michigan (+38,600), California (+25,700), North Carolina (+12,100), and Pennsylvania (+10,600). Michigan experienced the largest over-the-month  percentage increase in employment (+1.0 percent), followed by the District of Columbia (+0.8 percent), Montana (+0.7 percent), Oklahoma (+0.6 percent), and Utah (+0.5 percent). The largest over-the-month decrease in employment occurred in New York (-15,300), followed by Florida (-8,500), Georgia (-7,500), Virginia (-7,100), and South Carolina (-5,800). Wyoming (-0.9 percent) experienced the largest over-the-month percentage decrease in employment, followed by Idaho and Nevada (-0.4 percent each), and South Carolina (-0.3 percent). Over the year, nonfarm employment decreased in all 50 states and increased in the District of Columbia. The largest over-the-year percentage decreased occurred in Arizona (-6.9 percent), Michigan (-6.4 percent), Nevada (-6.0 percent), Georgia (-5.6 percent), and Wyoming (-5.5 percent).

States in Fiscal Peril: A Report from the Pew Center on the States

California’s fiscal problems are in a league of their own—but the Golden State is hardly alone. Some of the same factors driving California toward the brink of insolvency also are hurting an array of other states. This report( BeyondCalifornia) takes a close look at nine states particularly affected: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.

The States' Serious Fiscal Problems Could Cost 900,000 Jobs Next Yeat

From the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

States face a serious fiscal problem that could force them to institute additional deep budget cuts and tax increases in 2010. The federal assistance that states received for their Medicaid programs is scheduled to end on December 31, 2010, and the assistance states received for education and other services also will be largely exhausted by then.  

Presuming they will get no more fiscal relief, states will have to take steps to eliminate deficits for state fiscal year 2011 that ..could cost the economy 900,000 jobs next year.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will Soon Change Its Method for Reporting the Unemploment Situation

 

From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Upcoming Changes to The Employment Situation News Release 

    

    Effective with the release of January 2010 data on February 5, 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will introduce  several changes to The Employment Situation news release  text and tables. Two new summary tables--one for the household survey and one for the establishment survey--will replace the current table A. In addition, three new household data tables will provide information on the employment status of veterans, persons with a disability, and the foreign born. Also, the establishment data tables have been largely redesigned to include information on all employee hours and earnings, women workers, and production and nonsupervisory workers. The ordering and format of some tables also will change. Additional information is available at

 

http://www.bls.gov/bls/upcoming_empsit_changes.htm

The Bureau of Labor Statistics: The U.S. Labor Underutilization Rate Hits 17.5%

 U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part   time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian  workforce  

   

Oct 08    Sept 09     Oct O9

 11.1%     17.0%   17.5%