The Political Bridge

The Three Ms of Poll Data: Misunderstood, Misinterpreted, and Misused byDrTed

I am utterly amazed that so many intelligent and well educated people misunderstand, misinterpret, and misuse research data. (I have analyzed such data for nearly all of my adult years.) Case in point is the handlers of the Democratic candidates in KY for U.S. Senate.  

In November, the DrDan team made hay over a Survey USA poll showing its guy 11 points up over Jack Conway.  Last week, I got three e-mails about a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey showing Conway up by four over Mongiardo.  Jack Conway’s campaign now has the momentum, so it claims.

I doubt it that any claims can be made by any candidate at this stage of the race, but who knows?

Let’s then examine the two polls.

One source of possible problems with any data involves the polling team’s experience.   Sampling a new population can be problematic, with unforeseen issues contaminating the results.  All researchers (including myself) have been there and done that during their careers. 

Survey USA has had a remarkable record in previous election years; PPP is a relatively recent polling organization.  Could that be the reason for the differences in the reported Kentucky Senate polls?

Let’s then examine their accuracy in recent elections. In the 2009 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, Survey USA came the closest of all the many polls in predicting the actual outcome and PPP was second best (see Pollster.Com).  These are two excellent polling organizations.

Let’s then closely examine the Survey USA and PPP data for the Kentucky Democratic Senate race.  

Both organizations have good internal numbers, with standard error of measurements around 4.2%.  What a minute. Wasn’t there only a 4% difference between Conway and Mongiardo in the PPP data?  The PPP difference was then within the margin of error.

 Also, both polls indicated a relatively high number (30%) of undecided voters. And, I suspect that very few of the sampled Conway” or Mongiardo voters are strongly committed to their candidate. Hey, it’s basketball time in the Commonwealth.

The two polls sampled a slightly different population of likely Democratic voters in the 2010 Senatorial Primary.  The PPP data contained more females and a higher percentage of likely African-American voters than the Survey USA’s data.  These two demographic groups tended to support Conway over Mongiardo.

Differences also exist in the relative influence that different regions have upon the total primary vote. PPP has Western KY and the Louisville area accounting for 61% of the vote (33% for Western Kentucky and 28% for the Louisville area). SurveyUSA has these areas accounting for 49% of the vote (23% for Western Kentucky and 26% for the Louisville area)

Both organizations, I think, have oversampled potential voters from the Louisville area. Based on a review of previous off-year elections(including the hotly contested 1998 Democratic primary for mayor), I believe that these voters should reflect a little more than 20% of the sample.

More perplexing is the wide variation between poll data in regional support for Conway and Mongiardo.  The PPP has, for example. Conway tied with Mongiardo in Western Kentucky; while Survey USA has Mongiardo leading in that area by nearly 30 points.  Voter preferences do not change that quickly. 

I wouldn’t make any bets on or investments in either candidate based upon the PPP and SurveyUSA data.  The PPP results are inconclusive. There is too much variation between polls for my taste.

So why, oh why, should you take these polls seriously?

(To examine the cited data, click SurveyUSA and PPP)

Independent Poll Shows Rand Paul with a Big Lead in the Republican Senatorial Primary in Kentucky

Raleigh, N.C. –Rand Paul holds a large lead over Secretary of State Trey Grayson in Public Policy Polling’s first look at the race. Paul is up 44-25 on Grayson. 39% of likely primary voters have a favorable opinion of him to 13% unfavorable while 22% view Grayson positively to 15% unfavorable. Paul is winning the votes of conservatives by a 47-20 margin, while Grayson holds a 36-34 lead with moderates.

For more information on these data: Download PPP_Release_KY_1222

A Gallup.com Video: Republicans Take Lead in 2010 Generic Ballot

Click the left button to play

The Associated Press: Details on the Two Health Care Bills In House and the Senate’s Health Care Package

By ERICA WERNER and RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR (AP)

WASHINGTON — House Democratic leaders have presented a new health overhaul bill that melds legislation passed by three committees over the summer. And House Republicans have unveiled their own alternative, after months of criticizing the Democrats' approach.

In the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., is finalizing legislation merging the work of two committees and making other changes.

Here are details on the three bills. The Senate bill has not yet been made public, so some specifics are unknown

ABC NEWS Exit Poll Data: New Jersey's Gubernatorial Election was Chiefly an Anti-Corzine(D) Vote

NEW JERSEY –Fifty-four percent expressed an unfavorable opinion of Corzine overall, 48 percent held a negative view of Christie and 52 percent said the same of independent candidate Chris Daggett.

Notable was that the extent to which Christie's support was chiefly an anti-Corzine vote. Forty-two percent of the Republican's supporters said they'd cast their ballot more against his opponents than for him.  

ABC News Exit Poll Data on the Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Democratic Candidate Creigh Deeds' Main Problem was Creigh Deeds

VIRGINIA – More than a verdict on Obama, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds' main problem looks to have been Creigh Deeds. He fell short in connecting with Virginia voters: They divided on whether Deeds "shares your values" – 47 percent yes, 50 percent no. McDonnell, scored better; 61 percent said he shares their values.

Nearly half, 47 percent called the economy the single top issue in their vote, far and away No.1, as noted those economy voters favored McDonnell over Deeds by a 15-point margin, 57-42 percent...

A Breakdown of the Survey USA Data on the 2010 KY Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator

From Survey USA:

In a Democratic primary today, Dan Mongiardo is atop Jack Conway. Mongiardo, Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor, leads by 2:1 among liberals, 3:1 in Western Kentucky, and 5:1 in Eastern Kentucky. Conway, Kentucky's Attorney General, ties Mongiardo among conservatives, Democrats and is up 2:1 in Greater Louisville. 1 in 3 Democrat primary voters are not today behind either Mongiardo or Conway; expect fluidity in the coming months

 

Breakdown by Region

      

	West	Lou	North	East
Conway	14%	46%	29%	13%
Mongiardo	41%	26%	38%	62%
Price	2%	2%	2%	4%
Sweeney	0%	1%	1%	0%
Miller-Johnson	8%	3%	5%	2%
Other	14%	5%	12%	8%
Undecided	20%	17%	14%	11%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters	23%	26%	35%	16

(Jack Conway is from Louisville--Lou.)

Latest Survey USA Data on U.S. Senate Prmaries in Kentucky: Mongiardo(D) and Paul(R) Lead Their Primary Races

From WHAS-TV

32% Grayson
35% Paul
2% Johnson
1% Oerther
3% Thoney
10% Other
18% Undecided

28% Conway
39% Mongiardo
2% Price
1% Sweeney
5% Miller-Johnson
10% Other
16% Undecided

All Seems Good for Republicans on Election Night 2009: Does that Foretell a MajorPolitical Change of Direction for 2010 and Beyond?

The political gurus have been professing that the 2009 off-year elections will be an excellent predictor of the 2010 federal elections.   You will hear that Democratic victories in the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections foretold the Republican disaster of 2006. 

Around 7:15 on election night, Fox News will report that Republican candidates have swept the three major races in Virginia. Robert F. McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor has a 13 point lead (in the Real Clear Politics’ poll of polls) over Democrat, R. Creigh Deeds.

Around 8:15 on election night, CNN will announce that Doug Hoffman (Conservative Party) has soundly beaten Bill Owens (D) in the Special Election for the 23^rd Congressional District Seat in New York. CNN’s panel of political experts will then say that this was expected as the 23^rd is one of New York’s most rural districts.

Around 10:00 MSNBC will inform you that the Gubernatorial Race between Chris Christie (R) and John Corzine (D) in New Jersey is too close to call.  Chris Matthews will note Obama’s claim that the outcome of this gubernatorial race will be the first real verdict of his presidency.  Another commentator will add that without Chris Daggett (a conservative independent) in the race that Corzine would have been defeated easily. (Based on the very latest polling data, I believe that Corzine will barely eek out a victory.)

When Election Night 2009 is over, you might be led to believe that the Republicans are back, with wins in New Jersey and Virginia or they are back with big wins in Virginia and a close loss in New Jersey. You might also hear about President Obama being another winner, with the Corzine victory.  

None of the above may be correct.  The two gubernatorial races will probably be decided by unique political factors. Weather (or other) conditions might affect voter turnout, which will determine the New Jersey race. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Virginia has waffled on many important issues in this race. For example, he claimed in a questionnaire response to be supportive of collective bargaining for public safety employees; a few weeks later, he claimed that this response was sent in error by a junior staffer.  He is actually against such collective bargaining. (Info from the September 16^th issue of The Washington Post)

The congressional win in New York might actually portend problems for moderate Republicans. Hoffman (the likely winner) is a pro-life, anti-bailout, and anti-spending conservative.  He might even be more to the right than former Arkansas Governor, Michael Huckabee.

Because of the 2009 elections’ dynamics, I will not put too much stock in the results for 2010.

After I wrote the last sentence, I realize that a Hoffman victory might be good news for such libertarians as Rand Paul, a Republican senatorial candidate in Kentucky.  The electorate in the rural 23^rd Congressional District in New York in many ways resembles the rural Kentucky electorate.

Gov Beshear's Approval Rating Sags, Obama's Surges in New WHAS11/Survey USA Poll of Kentuckians

by Joe Arnold (Click the hot link to read the entire blog entry.)

Posted on November 2, 2009 at 11:54 PM

In a new (11/1) Survey USA poll of Kentucky adults, Kentuckians' approval of President Barack Obama has surged since the August 31 poll.  

Two months ago Kentucky gave Mr. Obama an abysmal 31% job approval rating.  But, in the new poll, he improves a full 15 percentage points to a 46% approval rating.

Meanwhile, the state's top elected Democrat, Governor Steve Beshear, whose favorable/unfavorable numbers were even at 47% two months ago, has slipped to a 44% approval rating vs. 50% disapproval.  www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx