The Political Bridge

Press Release from Jack Conway(D-KY) U.S.Senate Campaign: PAYGO Passage Could Be A Step In The Right Direction

For Immediate Release

February 5, 2010  

Contact: Allison Haley

Office Phone: 502-632-1820

Mobile Phone: 859-539-5430

[email protected]

 

LOUISVILLE - Jack Conway, Democratic candidate for United States Senate, today

"I was very pleased yesterday to see Congress pass pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) legislation. PAYGO, if enforced, can act as an effective control on spending in Washington and help bring us the budget surpluses we had in the 1990s.

"I spent much of January traveling the state on our Kentucky Jobs Tour. Repeatedly, people told me they are tired of the fiscal irresponsibility of our elected leaders in DC. If elected to be Kentucky's next Senator, I will bring accountability to Washington, put a stop to out-of-control spending and cut the deficit.

"Prior to the State of the Union Address on January 27, I urged President Obama to call for renewed adherence to the PAYGO system and I am glad to see it has moved through Congress.

"In these challenging times, Kentucky families are forced to make tough choices to live within their means. Now Washington must do the same."

 

Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Dan Mongriado(KY) is a Most Outspoken Critic of the Obama Adminstration's Coal Policies

From a Mongiardo Campaign Press Release of February 4, 2009

Of all the Democratic U.S. Senate candidates in Kentucky, Mongiardo has been the most outspoken and vocal critic of the Obama Administration’s and Congress’ attempt to pass a national energy bill that punishes coal producing states like Kentucky.  Mongiardo calls "Cap and Trade" legislation "nothing more than a huge new energy tax on Kentucky coal that will devastate Kentucky’s manufacturing base and significantly increase every Kentucky consumer’s electric bill."  Mongiardo described EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson’s announcement that the EPA intended to unilaterally and selectively enforce carbon emission standards on some industries without waiting for Congressional action as being "outrageous" and "ill conceived."

 From WYMT-TV

Dan Mongiardo's response to proposed federal government cuts to the coal industry:

"Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo says if anything, more money needs to be invested in coal.

“We need to figure out a way to bring coal into the 21st century using new coal technologies. Using coal to liquids, coal to fuels, so that we can decrease our dependence on foreign oil,” Mongiardo said."

 

Congressman John Yarmuth's (D-KY) Statement on Supreme Court Decision in Citizens United v. FEC

       
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 21, 2010     MEDIA CONTACT

Trey Pollard 202.225.5401       

(Louisville, KY) Today, Congressman John Yarmuth (KY-3) released the following statement in response to the news that the Supreme Court of the United States – in a 5 to 4 decision – ruled to remove limits on spending in federal elections by corporations and other special interest groups:

“I fear that this decision will be disastrous for our democracy. With so much special interest money already flowing through our system, Americans rightly wonder whether Congress works for them or Wall Street banks, drug companies, and deep-pocketed special interests. Now, the Supreme Court has opened up the floodgates to even more corrupting money. I wonder how long it will be until we have ‘the Senator from Goldman Sachs’ or ‘the Congresswoman from Pfizer

A Statement on Today's Supreme Court Decision from the Executive Director of the Center for Responsive Politics

Now the spigot has been opened even further for corporations, trade groups and unions to use as much money as their hefty bank accounts can muster to aid or attack a federal candidate," said Sheila Krumholz, the Center for Responsive Politics' executive director. "Such action could potentially come in the eleventh hour of a campaign when the target may not be capable of an effective response, for want of time, funds or both."

To Read More

A Few Political Notes from DrTed

 

Scott W. Brinkman (R) House District 32 might not be filing for re-election.  A potential Democratic candidate for this office provided me with this information. If true (which I doubt), then is Mr. Brinkman thinking about running for Mayor of Louisville?

I have heard rumors about other possible candidates for Mayor of Louisville.  A very well respected political operative has told me that Anne Northup is contemplating a run for mayor.  Bruce Lunsford is also (according to the rumor mill) thinking about running  for this office.  I have been told by those who know Mr. Lunsford that he IS NOT going to run.

CQ Politicsreported that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) spent $20,000 in coordinated funds for the Kentucky senate race.  Looks like Kentucky will once again be a prime senatorial battleground.

Governor Beshear has called a special election for February 2^ndfor Jimmy Higdon’s vacant seat in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

The Three Ms of Poll Data: Misunderstood, Misinterpreted, and Misused byDrTed

I am utterly amazed that so many intelligent and well educated people misunderstand, misinterpret, and misuse research data. (I have analyzed such data for nearly all of my adult years.) Case in point is the handlers of the Democratic candidates in KY for U.S. Senate.  

In November, the DrDan team made hay over a Survey USA poll showing its guy 11 points up over Jack Conway.  Last week, I got three e-mails about a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey showing Conway up by four over Mongiardo.  Jack Conway’s campaign now has the momentum, so it claims.

I doubt it that any claims can be made by any candidate at this stage of the race, but who knows?

Let’s then examine the two polls.

One source of possible problems with any data involves the polling team’s experience.   Sampling a new population can be problematic, with unforeseen issues contaminating the results.  All researchers (including myself) have been there and done that during their careers. 

Survey USA has had a remarkable record in previous election years; PPP is a relatively recent polling organization.  Could that be the reason for the differences in the reported Kentucky Senate polls?

Let’s then examine their accuracy in recent elections. In the 2009 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, Survey USA came the closest of all the many polls in predicting the actual outcome and PPP was second best (see Pollster.Com).  These are two excellent polling organizations.

Let’s then closely examine the Survey USA and PPP data for the Kentucky Democratic Senate race.  

Both organizations have good internal numbers, with standard error of measurements around 4.2%.  What a minute. Wasn’t there only a 4% difference between Conway and Mongiardo in the PPP data?  The PPP difference was then within the margin of error.

 Also, both polls indicated a relatively high number (30%) of undecided voters. And, I suspect that very few of the sampled Conway” or Mongiardo voters are strongly committed to their candidate. Hey, it’s basketball time in the Commonwealth.

The two polls sampled a slightly different population of likely Democratic voters in the 2010 Senatorial Primary.  The PPP data contained more females and a higher percentage of likely African-American voters than the Survey USA’s data.  These two demographic groups tended to support Conway over Mongiardo.

Differences also exist in the relative influence that different regions have upon the total primary vote. PPP has Western KY and the Louisville area accounting for 61% of the vote (33% for Western Kentucky and 28% for the Louisville area). SurveyUSA has these areas accounting for 49% of the vote (23% for Western Kentucky and 26% for the Louisville area)

Both organizations, I think, have oversampled potential voters from the Louisville area. Based on a review of previous off-year elections(including the hotly contested 1998 Democratic primary for mayor), I believe that these voters should reflect a little more than 20% of the sample.

More perplexing is the wide variation between poll data in regional support for Conway and Mongiardo.  The PPP has, for example. Conway tied with Mongiardo in Western Kentucky; while Survey USA has Mongiardo leading in that area by nearly 30 points.  Voter preferences do not change that quickly. 

I wouldn’t make any bets on or investments in either candidate based upon the PPP and SurveyUSA data.  The PPP results are inconclusive. There is too much variation between polls for my taste.

So why, oh why, should you take these polls seriously?

(To examine the cited data, click SurveyUSA and PPP)

Buried Deep in the Senate's Health Bill, There is a Very Progressive Measure

From the Nation

Without fanfare, the good Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has continued to work behind the scenes to champion community health centers--something he has done for years (also here). These non-profit, community-based facilities provide primary healthcare, dental care, mental health services, and low-cost prescription drugs on a sliding scale...Sanders made sure that a $10 billion increase in funding for the health centers was included...

To read more click Senator Sanders

 

Independent Poll Shows Rand Paul with a Big Lead in the Republican Senatorial Primary in Kentucky

Raleigh, N.C. –Rand Paul holds a large lead over Secretary of State Trey Grayson in Public Policy Polling’s first look at the race. Paul is up 44-25 on Grayson. 39% of likely primary voters have a favorable opinion of him to 13% unfavorable while 22% view Grayson positively to 15% unfavorable. Paul is winning the votes of conservatives by a 47-20 margin, while Grayson holds a 36-34 lead with moderates.

For more information on these data: Download PPP_Release_KY_1222

AP is Reporting that Congressman Baron Hill(D-IN) will Run for Congress in 2010 and Might Run for Governor in 2012

 INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Rep. Baron Hill, who has faced weeks of rumors that he’ll retire from Congress next year to run for Indiana governor in 2012, said he is considering a gubernatorial bid but will first run for another term in the House.

Hill’s comments came just days after the National Republican Congressional Committee sent out an e-mail about the Indiana Democrat’s so-called “retirement jitters.”

What is and What is Not Including in the New Jobs Bill

The measure includes funds for:

· Medicaid programs(approximately $23 billion to the States)

· Amtrak construction

· school renovation

· job training

· part-time college jobs

· summer employment for low-income teenagers

· workers in national parks and forests

· very poor people with as little as no income to claim a $1,000-per-child tax credit 

· federal surface transportation programs

 This measure does include (as promised by President Obama) funds to give:

· Social Security recipients $250 payments,

·  tax credits for small businesses that create jobs

· tax credits to people who make their homes more energy efficient

 

Information from the AP