The Political Bridge

A Gallup.com Video: Republicans Take Lead in 2010 Generic Ballot

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Health Care Bill: Compromise won over Rural Democratic Holdouts

Information from the Washington Post, January 9, 2009

Reps. Baron P. Hill(Ind.), Dan Maffei (N.Y), and Tom Perriello(VA) are Democratic Congressmen from predominantly rural districts. All three voted yes after concessions from the House Leadership.

For Hill the decision came down to a last-minute compromise that paved the way for an amendment ensuring that no federal funding would go to abortions.  For Tom Perriello the decision involved provisions for bigger payments to rural doctors..

 

 

All Seems Good for Republicans on Election Night 2009: Does that Foretell a MajorPolitical Change of Direction for 2010 and Beyond?

The political gurus have been professing that the 2009 off-year elections will be an excellent predictor of the 2010 federal elections.   You will hear that Democratic victories in the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections foretold the Republican disaster of 2006. 

Around 7:15 on election night, Fox News will report that Republican candidates have swept the three major races in Virginia. Robert F. McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor has a 13 point lead (in the Real Clear Politics’ poll of polls) over Democrat, R. Creigh Deeds.

Around 8:15 on election night, CNN will announce that Doug Hoffman (Conservative Party) has soundly beaten Bill Owens (D) in the Special Election for the 23^rd Congressional District Seat in New York. CNN’s panel of political experts will then say that this was expected as the 23^rd is one of New York’s most rural districts.

Around 10:00 MSNBC will inform you that the Gubernatorial Race between Chris Christie (R) and John Corzine (D) in New Jersey is too close to call.  Chris Matthews will note Obama’s claim that the outcome of this gubernatorial race will be the first real verdict of his presidency.  Another commentator will add that without Chris Daggett (a conservative independent) in the race that Corzine would have been defeated easily. (Based on the very latest polling data, I believe that Corzine will barely eek out a victory.)

When Election Night 2009 is over, you might be led to believe that the Republicans are back, with wins in New Jersey and Virginia or they are back with big wins in Virginia and a close loss in New Jersey. You might also hear about President Obama being another winner, with the Corzine victory.  

None of the above may be correct.  The two gubernatorial races will probably be decided by unique political factors. Weather (or other) conditions might affect voter turnout, which will determine the New Jersey race. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Virginia has waffled on many important issues in this race. For example, he claimed in a questionnaire response to be supportive of collective bargaining for public safety employees; a few weeks later, he claimed that this response was sent in error by a junior staffer.  He is actually against such collective bargaining. (Info from the September 16^th issue of The Washington Post)

The congressional win in New York might actually portend problems for moderate Republicans. Hoffman (the likely winner) is a pro-life, anti-bailout, and anti-spending conservative.  He might even be more to the right than former Arkansas Governor, Michael Huckabee.

Because of the 2009 elections’ dynamics, I will not put too much stock in the results for 2010.

After I wrote the last sentence, I realize that a Hoffman victory might be good news for such libertarians as Rand Paul, a Republican senatorial candidate in Kentucky.  The electorate in the rural 23^rd Congressional District in New York in many ways resembles the rural Kentucky electorate.

Public Policy Polling: Republican Challenger Chris Christie Charges Ahead of Democratic Incumbent Jon Corzine

Raleigh, N.C. – Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in Public Policy Polling’s final

survey of the New Jersey Governor’s race. Independent Chris Daggett polls at 11%.

Christie’s six point lead is an increase from four points a week ago and a single point

three weeks ago. He’s buoyed by a 52-29 lead with independents...

 

To read the entire poll results Download PPP_Release_NJ_1101513

The Risks of Success: Watering Down The Public Option

 Conventional wisdom in Washington now is that the Democrats have to pass something that they can claim to be health care “reform,” no matter how much or how little actual reform it contains…the Democratic base has become wedded to the idea of a public option, even as the specifics of what now seems to be legislatively viable have lost any real connection with its initial rationale..

To read more of this interesting article click: The Public Option

Congressional GOPs in Same Position Concerning Generic Matchup Polling Data as They Were in 2008 and 2006

From Who Runs Govt.com

 

The GOP is in the same position as it was heading into the 2008 and 2006 elections.

Right now, the Washington Post/ABC Poll finds that when respondents are asked whether they will vote for a Dem or a GOPer in the 2010 elections, 51% pick the Dem and 39% pick the Republican.

June of 2008 Dems led the generic matchup 52%-37%. In early November of 2006 the Dem lead was 51%-45%