The Political Bridge

Using Poll Data to Predict the Winner of the Heated Democratic Primary Between Conway and Mongiardo by DrTed

 

As I have written before, my graduate degrees are in Educational Psychology and Research (which involved numerous courses in measurement and statistics.)  While I have never conducted a poll, I know how to read one.

Let’s take the latest Survey USA (SUSA) poll (co-sponsored by The Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV) on the Conway vs. Mongiardo race.  SUSA is without doubt one of the finest public polling outfits in America.  Its accuracy rate has been well established.

As most of you know by now, SUSA claims that this race is a statistical dead heat.  Mongiardo is polling at 38% and Conway at 37%.  While these data are substantially different from earlier SUSA polls on this race, they are statistically the same as those reported by SUSA a month ago.

Most of you have read that this poll has a plus or minus error rate of 3.9.  This error rate, so I have been taught, applies to the reported mean for each candidate.  The reported mean for Conway ranges from 41% to 34% and for Mongiardo from 42% to 34%.

However, the given standard error of measurement is less important than the average distance between a poll’s projected margin (1% in the Conway-Mongriado race) and the actual margin.  Very few polling corporations report these later data.

Pollster.com has found that Survey USA’s projections have tended to be 4.5% off from the actual outcomes. Daily KOS showed an average difference of 6.11% between SUSA projections for the Obama-Clinton primary cycle and the actual vote.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot claim that Conway has momentum in this campaign.  To repeat, the statistical difference between the last two SUSA polls in this contest is meaningless.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot claim that Mongiardo is leading in this race.  According to SUSA, Mongiardo or Conway can win this race.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot make any claims about a candidate’s margin of victory. Chances are that it will be razor close but it might not be.

Is this Fair and Balanced? WHAS-TV in Louisville Uses Known Conway Contributor to Analyze Poll Data on the Conway-Mongiardo U.S. Senate Primary

(WHAS11) - WHAS11's Political Editor Joe Arnold talks to Democratic strategist Bob Gunnell about the results of the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass poll for the U.S. Senate race.

 

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E-mail  

From: DrTed [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 7:04 PM
To: 'Arnold, Joseph'
Subject: Is this the same Robert Gunnell that was on your blog

Mr. Arnold has not responded to my inquiry or taken this report off his blog....

 

CONWAY, JOHN WILLIAM (JACK)

Whose Last Name Begins With 'F-J'

Committee(s) Used In This Query:
CONWAY FOR SENATE

GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	09/30/2009	1000.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020010096
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	03/04/2010	400.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020243812
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	03/04/2010	600.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020243818
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	12/31/2009	1000.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020102900

Kentucky U.S. Senate Candidate Jack Conway(D) Calls On Washington to Repeal Special Interest "Sweetheart" Deal

For Immediate Release   Contact: Allison Haley

February 11, 2010   Office Phone: 502-632-1820

www.jackconway.org      Mobile Phone: 859-539-5430

    [email protected]

Repeal will save taxpayers $200 billion that can be used to create jobs, cut the deficit

LOUISVILLE - United States Senate candidate Jack Conway is today calling on Washington leaders to repeal a 2003 special interest deal in the Medicare law which will cost taxpayers $200 billion over the next decade.

The deal, a provision inserted into the 2003 prescription drug benefit legislation by big pharmaceutical companies, was signed into law by President George W. Bush, and prevents Medicare from using bulk-buying power to negotiate lower prices on prescription drugs.

"Washington cut a backroom deal with the drug companies that will cost taxpayers $200 billion. I'm calling on Democrats and Republicans in Washington to come together and repeal this giveaway and focus on our working families by creating jobs and cutting the deficit."

Allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices for seniors is a promise that has been made repeatedly to the American people in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, but leaders in the Senate have not committed to repeal the provision as part of the current health care bill.

Kentucky's seniors face crippling costs on prescription drugs. In fact, about 129,000 seniors in the Commonwealth have prescription drug needs which cost them an average of over $4,000 each year.

A 2009 study by the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare found that the Veterans Administration, which is able to use bulk buying power to negotiate lower prices on prescription drugs, pays an average of 48% less for the same drugs as Medicare Part D. Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices could save taxpayers as much as $200 billion over the next 10 years.

"Under my leadership as Attorney General, our Medicaid fraud office has recovered tens of millions of dollars from prescription drug companies that overcharged our state Medicaid program. It's time for Washington to do away with this backroom deal and focus on taking care of our seniors, creating jobs and lowering the deficit," Conway said

 

The Kentucky U.S. Senate Democratic Primary: Dr. Mongiardo and AG Conway Sharply Differ on Light Rail for Kentucky

January 29, 2010

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Annette Lee
(502) 498-4008x230
[email protected]

Mongiardo Renews Call for Kentucky To Be Included in Nation’s High Speed Rail Plan: Applauds  News  Kentucky To Be Included in Feasibility Study

Conway Has Said Including Kentucky in Plan, “Is Not Rooted in Reality

FRANKFORT --- In the wake of today’s announcement that the Federal Railroad Administration has approved a $250,000 grant to study the feasibility of including Kentucky in a national high speed rail network, Lt. Governor and Democratic U.S. Senate Daniel Mongiardo renewed his call --- made 2 months ago ago in a speech in Louisville --- that Kentucky be included in a new national high speed rail network.

“As I advocated two months ago, today’s announcement is the first step towards hopefully including Kentucky in a high speed national rail network that could bring badly needed jobs and economic growth to our state. I applaud today’s announcement because much like the federal interstate highway system, Kentucky can not afford to be left behind in a new national high speed rail network. As a U.S. Senator I will fight to get Kentucky included,” said Mongiardo.

Last month, Attorney General Jack Conway dismissed Mongiardo’s call for including Kentucky in a new high speed rail system saying Mongiardo’s plan was “not rooted in reality.”

With today’s  announcement, Mongiardo’s campaign spokesman Kim Geveden called on Conway to embrace Mongiardo’s call for Kentucky to be included in such a rail network.

“Daniel Mongiardo has shown he has the vision and ideas to create jobs and spur economic growth in Kentucky,” said Geveden. “In contrast, Jack Conway has dismissed the idea of Kentucky being part of a national rail plan that could create jobs and economic growth throughout Kentucky. How many more billions will be invested in developing a new rail network in other states, creating jobs in other communities before Conway acknowledges the economic benefits and jobs that could be associated with making Kentucky part of a new national rail grid?” said Geveden.

“Daniel Mongiardo believes Kentucky’s workers, small businesses and manufacturers cannot afford to be left behind.  If we do not begin working now to get Kentucky included in our nation’s high speed rail plan, the routes will pass-by our communities, along with the jobs and economic growth associated with it. Kentuckians simply cannot afford Jack Conway’s lack of vision about how to create jobs and economic growth,” said Geveden.

Jack Conway (D), Candidate for U.S. Senate in KY, Supports Blocking EPA Overreach

For Immediate Release       Contact: Allison Haley January 21, 2010       Mobile Phone: 859-539-5430 www.JackConway.org         Office Phone: 502-632-1820       [email protected]         Jack Conway, Democratic candidate for United States Senate issued this statement regarding today’s action by Sen. Murkowski, R-Alaska: I support Senator Murkowski’s decision to file a disapproval resolution to block EPA regulations of greenhouse gas emissions, under the auspices of clean air laws. In this tough economic climate, I cannot support any measure that will cost Kentucky jobs and raise electricity rates for our working families. If I am fortunate enough to be elected to the United States Senate, I will make every effort to ensure we have a thoughtfully crafted, comprehensive energy policy and fight any attempts by the EPA to overreach its authority at the expense of Kentucky’s families.

 

Paid for by Conway for US Senate

The Three Ms of Poll Data: Misunderstood, Misinterpreted, and Misused byDrTed

I am utterly amazed that so many intelligent and well educated people misunderstand, misinterpret, and misuse research data. (I have analyzed such data for nearly all of my adult years.) Case in point is the handlers of the Democratic candidates in KY for U.S. Senate.  

In November, the DrDan team made hay over a Survey USA poll showing its guy 11 points up over Jack Conway.  Last week, I got three e-mails about a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey showing Conway up by four over Mongiardo.  Jack Conway’s campaign now has the momentum, so it claims.

I doubt it that any claims can be made by any candidate at this stage of the race, but who knows?

Let’s then examine the two polls.

One source of possible problems with any data involves the polling team’s experience.   Sampling a new population can be problematic, with unforeseen issues contaminating the results.  All researchers (including myself) have been there and done that during their careers. 

Survey USA has had a remarkable record in previous election years; PPP is a relatively recent polling organization.  Could that be the reason for the differences in the reported Kentucky Senate polls?

Let’s then examine their accuracy in recent elections. In the 2009 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, Survey USA came the closest of all the many polls in predicting the actual outcome and PPP was second best (see Pollster.Com).  These are two excellent polling organizations.

Let’s then closely examine the Survey USA and PPP data for the Kentucky Democratic Senate race.  

Both organizations have good internal numbers, with standard error of measurements around 4.2%.  What a minute. Wasn’t there only a 4% difference between Conway and Mongiardo in the PPP data?  The PPP difference was then within the margin of error.

 Also, both polls indicated a relatively high number (30%) of undecided voters. And, I suspect that very few of the sampled Conway” or Mongiardo voters are strongly committed to their candidate. Hey, it’s basketball time in the Commonwealth.

The two polls sampled a slightly different population of likely Democratic voters in the 2010 Senatorial Primary.  The PPP data contained more females and a higher percentage of likely African-American voters than the Survey USA’s data.  These two demographic groups tended to support Conway over Mongiardo.

Differences also exist in the relative influence that different regions have upon the total primary vote. PPP has Western KY and the Louisville area accounting for 61% of the vote (33% for Western Kentucky and 28% for the Louisville area). SurveyUSA has these areas accounting for 49% of the vote (23% for Western Kentucky and 26% for the Louisville area)

Both organizations, I think, have oversampled potential voters from the Louisville area. Based on a review of previous off-year elections(including the hotly contested 1998 Democratic primary for mayor), I believe that these voters should reflect a little more than 20% of the sample.

More perplexing is the wide variation between poll data in regional support for Conway and Mongiardo.  The PPP has, for example. Conway tied with Mongiardo in Western Kentucky; while Survey USA has Mongiardo leading in that area by nearly 30 points.  Voter preferences do not change that quickly. 

I wouldn’t make any bets on or investments in either candidate based upon the PPP and SurveyUSA data.  The PPP results are inconclusive. There is too much variation between polls for my taste.

So why, oh why, should you take these polls seriously?

(To examine the cited data, click SurveyUSA and PPP)

Conway(D-KY) Heralds His U.S. Senate Campaign Team

For Immediate Release

 Contact: Allison Haley

December 8, 2009

 Office Phone: 502-632-1820

www.JackConway.org

 Mobile Phone: 859-539-5430

 [email protected]

LOUISVILLE – The U.S. Senate campaign of Democratic candidate Jack Conway announced his campaign team today. The team includes some of the Democratic Party’s top advisors, leading experts on winning tough battleground states and unmatched Kentucky success.

”We have put together one of the best teams in the country. This team will allow us to execute a professional plan to win back Wendell Ford’s U.S. Senate seat. I welcome our new members of the team, Jonathan Drobis and Allison Haley, and I look forward to a great year ahead," Conway said.

Jack Conway’s Team includes: 

•  Media Strategist: Mandy Grunwald of Grunwald Communications has served President Bill Clinton, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on both her Presidential and Senate campaigns, Senators Ken Salazar, Al Franken, Jeanne Shaheen, and Amy Klobuchar as well as numerous other national leaders. Grunwald also worked for Kentucky Senator Wendell Ford and Governor Wallace Wilkinson.
• Campaign Manager: Jonathan Drobis. Drobis has experience in nearly every component of campaigning from working with field operations on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign to political strategy and direct mail with a prominent consulting firm to his most recent position as Deputy Campaign Manager for Bill Thompson, Democratic candidate for Mayor of New York City.
• Press Secretary: Allison Haley. Haley is one of the most experienced communication experts in Kentucky having served as Communications Director for Bruce Lunsford’s U.S. Senate campaign, the Kentucky Democratic Party and House Speaker Pro Team Larry Clark’s office and as a long-time political reporter.
• Media Strategist and General Consultant: Mark Riddle of Fletcher Rowley Riddle, has served as Conway’s longtime advisor. His media firm has elected over a dozen Members of Congress and numerous leaders across the country. FRR, Inc has worked for Attorney General Jack Conway, now Congressman Ben Chandler, Mayor Jerry Abramson, Mayor Jim Newberry and elected leaders across Kentucky.
• Pollster and Senior Strategist: Pete Brodnitz of Benenson Strategy Group was named Pollster of the Year in 2007. Brodnitz’s firm polls for President Barack Obama, the Democratic National Committee and DSCC Chair Senator Bob Menendez. Their work includes huge Democratic wins for Tim Kaine for Governor, Senators Jim Webb, Jeff Merkley the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, among others.
• Direct Mail and Senior Strategist: Joe Hansen of Ambrosino, Muir & Hansen, a leading direct mail firm that currently represents 20 US Senators and 14 Governors. AM&H was also chosen as the Western region mail firm for the Obama campaign. Joe Hansen has been active in Democratic campaign for 25 years. He has managed 4 successful US States Senate campaigns, and has served as the executive director of the DSCC in the 2000 cycle.
• Research and Strategic Positioning: Benjamin Jones of New Partners has served as a lead research strategist with the Obama campaign and the DNC during the 2008 election cycle, and served as Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's director of research during the 2001-2005 election cycles. Jones has worked with more than 65 campaigns in 27 states, including U.S. Senate, congressional, gubernatorial, mayoral and state legislative races.
• Senior Advisor: Charles Halloran of DC-based Spectrum partners boasts a career spanning from Bill Clinton’s New Hampshire Primary through his work at the Democratic National Committee, DCCC and Capitol Hill. Halloran is one of the top campaign operatives in the country, and will now primarily be assisting the campaign from his office in DC. He recently served as general consultant to five winning congressional races in 2008 and played an integral role in Conway’s record-breaking fundraising effort while serving as interim campaign manager.

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The Word on Jack Conway's (D-KY)New Campaign Manager

As noted in  Hotline.com, the Conway Campaign has a new Campaign Manager, Johnathan Drobis

 

Here is further information about Mr. Drobis from the NY Times, October 6, 2009

JONATHAN DROBIS, 29 (Graduate of Duke University)

Most Recent Position: Deputy Campaign Manager for Democratic NY Mayoral Candidate, Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr

Came from a direct mail firm, Ambrosino, Muir & Hansen, where he worked for President Obama; Senator Mark Begich, a Democrat of Alaska; and on governor's races in West Virginia, Montana and New Hampshire.

Field operative for Mrs. Clinton's presidential campaign in six states, four of which she won (New Hampshire, Texas, Pennsylvania and Indiana). 

 

Candidate for U.S. Senate Jack Conway(D-KY) Encouraged by Washington Jobs Summit

December 3, 2009

Contact: Allison Haley

 Office Phone: 502-632-1820

Mobile Phone: 859-539-5430

[email protected]

www.JackConway.org    

 

Touts need for job creation as key to economic stimulation

 

LOUISVILLE – Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Jack Conway today released a statement regarding President Barack Obama’s Jobs Summit being held at the White House today:

”It heartens me to see President Obama focus on finding ways to create desperately needed jobs for Americans. With Kentucky’s unemployment rate over 11 percent, I am glad to see Washington finally taking the initiative to put our citizens back to work.”

”Job creation is the most important factor in rebuilding our economy. I propose we immediately reinvest recovered TARP funds in my “Homeland Tax Credit Program”* for small businesses and to pay down the deficit. I look forward to seeing what new possibilities emerge from this summit.”

*Conway proposes to provide a tax credit for all domestic companies who create new jobs in the US and keep them there.

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Jack Conway, Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate, Expresses Reservations About President Obama's Plan for Troop Surge

For Immediate Release        

Contact: Allison Haley

December 2, 2009    

 Office Phone: 502-632-1820

Mobile Phone: 859-539-5430

[email protected]

www.JackConway.org      

Democratic candidate for US Senate Jack Conway, today released this statement in response to President Obama's speech last night:

"I think it is apparent that the President has given this issue of escalation in Afghanistan great deal of serious thought, and I appreciate the appropriate tone of his remarks, as well as the laudable goals he set forth.

"Success in this venture will mean leaving behind a stable government in Afghanistan that does not provide safe haven to Al-Qaeda.  In order to do that, the United States will need serious commitments from NATO partners as well as political cooperation from partners in the region.  While I agree with the President's goals, I heard too little about political cooperation from Pakistan and the threat it poses.  Pakistan harbors the most dangerous mix of terrorists and nuclear weapons in the world. This is where our focus should be. We must have a policy that roots out terrorists from their hiding places, eliminates their threat, and brings our troops home quickly.

"As a United States Senator it would be my primary duty to help keep Americans safe. I would also weigh how any plan of action would affect Kentucky , our troops, their families and our standing among other nations.  I know our military men and women will serve valiantly, but I have reservations about the President's position to send more troops. I do not feel President Obama has adequately explained how he will get Pakistan involved in the effort to combat Al-Qaeda. At its core, we are dealing with a regional issue which requires the cooperation of regional partners to ensure success."

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