The Political Bridge

Latest Survey USA Data: Questions Might Exist on Rassmussen's Data about Conway(D) in the Senate Race

Survey USA Data, Monday 11/3/09

The state's top elected Democrat, Governor Steve Beshear, whose favorable/unfavorable numbers were even at 47% two months ago, has slipped to a 44% approval rating vs. 50% disapproval.  www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx 

Rasmussen Data-Monday October 5, 2009

Fifty-nine percent (59%) approve of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance, with 17% who strongly approve. Forty-one percent (41%) disapprove, including 16% who strongly disapprove...

 ---------------------------------------------------------

This discrepancy between polls has several interpretations. Both polling numbers could be accurate, which is highly unlikely.  Little has happened in KY during the last few weeks to change Beshear’s numbers that radically. This discrepancy could mean that Rasmussen oversampled the urban areas or that Survey USA under sampled them.  Supportive evidence for this hypothesis is found in the Survey USA data that is presented below, Without being able to analyze the Rasmussen sample, any hypothesis concerning the differences between polls might be correct. Regardless, Rasmussen data showing a Conway surge must be questioned and that Beshear might be in trouble, Drted

 

Behsear's Numbers By Region

  Western Louisville Northern Eastern

Pos   46%      54%   41%   33%

Neg  49%       44%      50%    59%

 

 

Zogby Interactive Data Report: A Deadlocked New Jersey Gubernatorial Election

Galloway Twp, NJ - A poll of 1,093 likely New Jersey voters finds incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine leading Republican challenger Chris Christie by one percentage point (40% to 39%) headed into next Tuesday's general election. 

Support for independent challenger Chris Daggett sits at 14%.  Daggett has strong support among independent and unaffiliated voters (23%), but is also pulling support from the left (13% among Democrats) and the right (8% among Republicans). 

	Overall	DEM (42%)	IND (26%)*	GOP (32%)
Jon Corzine	40%	71%	26%	11%
Chris Christie	39%	10%	39%	77%
Chris Daggett	14%	13%	23%	8%
Someone Else	1%	1%	2%	Less than 1%
Undecided	6%	5%	10%	4%

*Includes Independent and Unaffiliated voters.  Party ID based on self identification

Emerge America Launches New Statewide Kentucky Affiliate Organization to Recruit and Train Women for Elected Office from Kathy Groob

Emerge America, a national, non‐profit organization established in 2003 to recruit and train Democratic women who want to run for public office, today announced the launching of Emerge Kentucky. Emerge Kentucky will recruit Democratic women statewide and put them through an intensive seven‐month training and networking program based upon the Emerge America curriculum. Emerge Kentucky will begin its first class of women candidates in February 2010. The application process will begin this November.

“Kentucky ranks 45th among the states for women in elected office and there are no women representing Kentucky in Congress ‐‐ we must do better,” said Emerge Kentucky Board Chair, Jennifer A. Moore. “We have received an enthusiastic response from women across Kentucky about the program. Our board of advisors and board of directors is an impressive list of women committed to improving the political landscape for women in Kentucky.” Moore served as the chair of the Kentucky Democratic Party in 2007 and 2008 at the selection of Governor Steve Beshear. She is a partner in the Louisville law firm, Grossman & Moore PLLC.

In addition, Emerge Kentucky has hired Kathy Groob as its executive director. Groob is a former city councilwoman from Ft. Mitchell and ran for the state senate in 2008. She is a political consultant with November Strategies in Covington and is the publisher of ElectWomen Magazine. “I know firsthand how difficult it is for women to run for office,” said Groob. “When women go through the Emerge program, they will be ready to run and Kentucky will benefit greatly from additional women holding leadership positions.”

Emerge Kentucky’s advisory board includes the following members: former Governor Martha Layne Collins, Auditor Crit Luallen, First Lady Jane Beshear, Senator Denise Harper Angel, Senator Kathy Stein, Senator Robin Webb, Reps. Linda Belcher, Leslie Combs, Kelly Flood, Joni Jenkins, Martha Jane King, MaryLou Marzian, Sannie Overly, Ruth Ann Palumbo, Dottie Sims, and Susan Westrom, Judge Executive Carolyn Belcher, Jennifer Chandler, Teresa Isaac, Eleanor Jordan, Lillian Press, Mary Karen Stumbo, Mayor Elaine Walker, Lois Combs Weinberg, and Virginia Woodward.

Board members from across Kentucky include: Gina Berry, Ashley Jackson, Priscilla Johnson, Virginia Johnson, Kathleen Lape, Chris McGarvey, Wanda Mitchell‐Smith, Kerry Morgan, Melinda Niemann, Vicki Prichard, Kennita Roy, Linda Scholle Cowan, Loren Wolff, and Kathy Wright.

For information about Emerge Kentucky, to volunteer, contribute or for program application information contact Kathy Groob at 859‐291‐9001 or visit www.EmergeAmerica.org.

# # #

 

Fundraising Totals Per Candidate for the 2010 Louisville Mayor's Race

From the Courier-Journal

Democratic Candidates

Business Executive Greg Fischer raised $220,539 and spent $70,337.

Metro Councilman Jim King raised $200,675 ($9,000 of which he gave himself) and spent $9,455.

Metro Council President David Tandy reported raising $66,330 and spending $3,692.

Businessperson Tyler Allen reported raising only $1,701.  

On the Republican side, Heiner raised $70,596 and spent $11,498, leaving him with more than $59,000 on hand. Riggs Lewis, a consultant for Heiner, said the councilman hasn't yet held a fundraiser but has several planned for the next quarter.

From the Jack Conway(D) for Senate Campaign: Rasmussen Polls Show a Conway Surge in Kentucky's 2010 US Senate Race

For Immediate Release      Contact: Mark Riddle October 5, 2009   www.jackconway.org   [email protected]nway.org A new independent poll confirms that Attorney General Jack Conway has captured the momentum in Kentucky's United States Senate campaign.   Despite months of Daniel Mongiardo's relentless spin, the new independent poll by Rasmussen Research shows clearly that Mongiardo's support is deteriorating. While Conway holds a strong 49% favorable and 27% unfavorable rating among all Kentucky voters, Mongiardo has a weak net negative rating of just 41% favorable and 43% unfavorable.   The independent poll shows Jack Conway is the strongest Democrat against both Republican candidates Trey Grayson and Rand Paul.  Conway runs even with Grayson, and is four points ahead of Paul.   Mongiardo trails Grayson by 7 points (44% to 37%) and trails Paul by 5 points (43% to 38%). "The people of Kentucky trust Attorney General Jack Conway because he's delivered results for them," said Mark Riddle, a Conway strategist.   Since being elected Kentucky's attorney general, Jack Conway has saved taxpayers $162 million, put child predators behind bars, and fought to keep illegal prescription drugs out of the hands of children. ###

Paid for by Conway for Senate

Special Prosecutor Will Look into Campaign Finance Issues Involving a Prominent Louisville Political Family: Metro Councilman Jim King and Judge Kathie King

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- A special prosecutor will look into campaign finance issues involving metro councilman Jim King and his daughter, Judge Katie King.

WLKY obtained a letter from Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway's office Friday afternoon.

It was sent to Shelby County attorney Hart Megibben, who has agreed to accept the role of special prosecutor in this case.

 

Read More:The Kings

 

Webb-Ditty race among state Senate's costliest, reports The Courier-Journal

Democrat Robin Webb raised more than $400,000 in winning last month's special election for the state's vacant 18thth District House seat, nearly doubling what her Republican opponent raised in the monthlong campaign.

The campaign is expected to be one of the most expensive state legislative race in Kentucky's history — if not the most expensive — after expenditures by the Republican and Democratic parties and political action committees are factored in.

The race pitted Webb, a five–term representative, against Greenup County dermatologist Jack Ditty in a battle that could have an impact on Republicans' ability to keep control of the state Senate.

Webb won narrowly, giving the Democrats their second straight special Senate election victory since the 2008 elections and pulling them within two votes of tying the Republicans for control of the Senate.

Read more: The Courier-Journal 

Senate Dems Are in Good Shape in 2010, According to Senator Robert Menendez, Chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee

Senate Democrats are placing their 2010 fortunes on two bets: the economy will continue to improve and President Barack Obama will sign a health care overhaul bill this year.

“Does anyone think a year from now, 14 months from now, that we will not be in better shape than we are today?” New Jersey Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, who runs the campaign operation, told reporters today. “But Republicans will have done absolutely nothing to have put us in that better shape, I think that’s a huge consequence for them..

Read More: Senate Dems

Rothenberg Report: Democratic Control of the House Is Not Now at Risk

Democratic control of the House is not now at risk, and Republicans could gain anywhere from only a handful of seats to a couple of dozen or more, depending on how things develop over the next year. Two things seem clear: the NRCC’s 2006 and 2008 long nightmare is over, and Democrats must localize races to limit their losses in 2010.

 

Read More: Rothenberg Report

Red Dawn Rising in 2010: A Famed Political Prognosticator Forecasts Republican Gain of Between 20 and 30 Seat in the House of Representatives

From Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.com

After examining all 435 House races for 2010, the Crystal Ball projects that Republicans will gain between 20 and 30 seats. While this is nothing to sneeze at, especially given that it would be the largest gain for congressional Republicans since 1994, it still puts them short of the 40 seat pick-up they need to take back the House.

In total, 70 Democratic-held seats are competitive, while only 34 Republican seats are as endangered...