The Political Bridge

Public Policy Polling's Final Kentucky Senate GOP Poll: Paul Set for Big Win Against Grayson

From PPP: "Fueled by a high level of unhappiness with the direction of the Republican Party, Rand Paul appears to be poised for an easy victory over Trey Grayson in Tuesday's Kentucky Senate primary. He leads PPP's final poll 52-34."

For more information about this poll, Download PPP_Release_KY_516

Joe Arnold of WHAS-TV Reports that Senate Republican Candidate Rand Paul is Polling Very Well in KY

Rand Paul supporters stuffed the ballot box in an online poll to persuade Public Policy to select the Kentucky U.S. Senate race as their final poll of 2009.  And it appears Paul got a stocking stuffer in return, according to the PPP. ".... the Kentucky general election numbers we'll release Wednesday show Rand Paul doing only one point worse than Trey Grayson against Jack Conway and three points worse against Dan Mongiardo."

For more on these data click Joe Arnold

AP is Reporting that Congressman Baron Hill(D-IN) will Run for Congress in 2010 and Might Run for Governor in 2012

 INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Rep. Baron Hill, who has faced weeks of rumors that he’ll retire from Congress next year to run for Indiana governor in 2012, said he is considering a gubernatorial bid but will first run for another term in the House.

Hill’s comments came just days after the National Republican Congressional Committee sent out an e-mail about the Indiana Democrat’s so-called “retirement jitters.”

Republican Jimmy Higdon Wins the Special Election in Kentucky's 14th State Senate District(see the unofficial results below)

2009 Special Election Results

Unofficial results for State Senate 14th District

County	Jimmy Higdon Republican	Jodie Haydon Democratic
Marion	2,860	1,405
Mercer	1,542	1,186
Nelson	2,982	3,850
Taylor	2,612	1,396
Washington	1,331	1,054

Totals:      11,327    8,891


Total Registered Voters = 83,416
Total Votes Cast = 20,218
Turnout = 24%

 

The Special Election in the 14th State Senate District: Why It Matters So Much by DrTed

 

Today (December 8, 2009), there is a very important special election in Kentucky’s 14^thSenate District.

With a Democratic win, the State Senate will be composed of 19 Republicans, 17 Democrats, and 1 Independent (who votes with the Republican caucus).

This win (coupled with Marty Myer beating Dan Seum and Leper losing in Paducah) will enable Democrats to control the State Senate in 2011. A Marty Myer win and a Leper loss is entirely possible.

Democratic control of the State Senate is especially important for the 2011-2012 sessions. During that legislative cycle, the Kentucky General Assembly will redistrict Kentucky legislative and U.S. Congressional districts.  The General Assembly redistricts (by law) legislative and congressional seats after each decennial U.S. Census count.  

A Democratic win would mean that the Kentucky Democratic Party, with a big assistance from organized labor, would have won three special elections in the last two years. Who says that Kentucky is a Red state?

A Democratic win would provide a big boost to the proponents of expanded gaming. The horsey folk have put much money into this election on behalf of the Democrat, Jodie Haydon.

A Democratic win would be a real kick in the u-know-what to Senate President David Williams.  He is, I have been told, a rallying point for the Democrats in the District. They see Mr. Williams as the Mitch McConnell of the Kentucky State Senate—The Great Obstructer of Progress.

A Republican win would be a victory for the traditional values folks. It would be a defeat for women (who believe in choice). It could be a devastating blow to the Beshear administration and to the Kentucky Democratic Party’s fortunes in this great commonwealth.

You now want to know what will happen in this election. 

I will tell you that now.

JH will win the special election, because the candidates for this race are Jodie Haydon (D) and Jimmy Higdon(R)

Jodie Haydon, will win because he has much more money and better organizing than is Jimmy Higdon.

Jimmy Higdon will win because the district favors him.  The 14^thState Senate District is mainly conservative, Baptist and rural. Jimmy Higdon is a well known and liked State Legislator and owner of grocery stores.

Jodie Haydon is a well know and liked former public official in Bardstown and Nelson County, which has a sizable Catholic population.

Jimmy Higdon will win if Jodie Haydon cannot win Nelson County by more than 1500 votes. That is what I have been told.

I have also been told that the internal polling for each Party has its candidate up by a few points.

No one can then predict what the outcome of this special election will be.

One can predict that its outcome will most likely impact the Kentucky political scene for years to come.

 

 

 

WHAS-TV News is Reporting the Republican Jimmy Higdon has Raised $133,499 for the Dec 8th Special State Senate Election

FRANKFORT, Ky. (AP) — Republican Jimmy Higdon has filed a campaign finance report that shows he has raised far less than his Democratic opponent(Jodie Haydon) in Kentucky's special state Senate race.

Higdon filed the report Monday showing he has $131,499. Of that, he still has 73,628 still on hand.

Fact Sheet by DrTed on the Special State Senate Election in KY

General Facts (Source: Kentucky Secretary of State)

Date: December 8, 2009

Office: The 14^th State Senate District; formerly held by Dan Kelly (R)

Counties in the District:  Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Taylor & Washington

Voter Registration Data for the District:

Dem: 54,306

Repub: 24,448

Other: 4,702

Total: 83,456

 

Democratic Candidate: Jodie Haydon (Source: Jodie Haydon)

Born: 1945

Hometown: Bardstown, KY

Family: Married to the former Carolyn Greenwell; 2 adult daughters

Occupation: Vice-president of Nally and Haydon, Inc., a construction company

Public Office Experience: Former State Representative and Bardstown City Councilman

 

Financial report as of 11/23/09(Source: Kentucky Registry of Election Finance)

Total Receipts:  333,455.00

Total Distributions: 255,623.43 

Balance: 77,831.57

 

Evaluations of Voting Record: There is no information on Project Vote Smart’s website about Mr. Haydon's voting record in the General Assembly.

 

Republican Candidate: Jimmy Higdon

Born: 1953

Hometown: Lebanon, KY

Family:  Married to the former Jane Miles of Loretto, KY; Adult Daughter and Adult Son

Occupation: Owns and operates (with wife): Higdon’s Foodtown and Higdon’s Appliance     Center

Public Office Experience: 24^th District State Representative since 2002

(Source for the personal information: Jimmy Higdon)

 

Financial report as of 11/06/01(Source: Kentucky Registry of Election Finance)

Total Receipts: 16,405.09     

Total Distributions: 8,699.68 

Balance: 22,955.25

(Beginning balance: 15,250.00)

 

Evaluations of Voting Record (Source: Project Vote Smart):

2008: 63% from the Kentucky Club for Growth   

2008: A from the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund

2007: 83% from the Kentucky National Federation of Independent Business

2006: 100% from the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce

Same-Sex Partners and Senior Domestic Partners Measure Wins in the State of Washington

Source: Washington's Secretary of State's Office

The legislature passed Engrossed Second Substitute Senate Bill 5688 concerning rights and responsibilities of state-registered domestic partners and voters have filed a sufficient referendum petition on this bill.

This bill would expand the rights, responsibilities, and obligations accorded state-registered same-sex and senior domestic partners to be equivalent to those of married spouses, except that a domestic partnership is not a marriage.

963,112

100.00%

 

County Results & Map Last updated on 11/3/2009 10:37 PM Referendum Measure 71 concerning rights and responsibilities of state-registered domestic partners
Measure	Vote	Vote %
Approved	507,547	51.12 %
Rejected	485,253	48.88 %
Total Votes

The Big Surprise of the 2009 Election: Moderate Democrat Owens Wins in a Traditional Republican District

WASHINGTON (CNN) – CNN projects Democrat Bill Owens wins in New York's 23rd congressional district, defeating Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Election Results from Maine: Sex-Same Marriage Law is Losing; Medical Use of Marijuana is Passing

 

Unofficial Results sorted by race for 2009 November Election contested races updated at 12:39 AM on Wednesday, November 4, 2009. 507 of 605 (84 %) of precincts have been reported. 485685 of 969912 ( 52%) registered voters have participated in this election. Election information provided by the Bangor Daily News.

 

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes	237749	52.32%
No	216667	47.68%
DECREASE AUTOMOBILE EXCISE TAX
No	332656	74.01%
Yes	116809	25.99%
VOTER APPROVAL OF TAX INCREASES
No	270371	60.60%
Yes	175799	39.40%
MAINE MEDICAL MARIJUANA ACT
Yes	265471	58.77%
No	186274	41.23%
HIGHWAY BOND ISSUE
Yes	290574	65.51%
No	152988	34.49%