The Political Bridge

Using Poll Data to Predict the Winner of the Heated Democratic Primary Between Conway and Mongiardo by DrTed

 

As I have written before, my graduate degrees are in Educational Psychology and Research (which involved numerous courses in measurement and statistics.)  While I have never conducted a poll, I know how to read one.

Let’s take the latest Survey USA (SUSA) poll (co-sponsored by The Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV) on the Conway vs. Mongiardo race.  SUSA is without doubt one of the finest public polling outfits in America.  Its accuracy rate has been well established.

As most of you know by now, SUSA claims that this race is a statistical dead heat.  Mongiardo is polling at 38% and Conway at 37%.  While these data are substantially different from earlier SUSA polls on this race, they are statistically the same as those reported by SUSA a month ago.

Most of you have read that this poll has a plus or minus error rate of 3.9.  This error rate, so I have been taught, applies to the reported mean for each candidate.  The reported mean for Conway ranges from 41% to 34% and for Mongiardo from 42% to 34%.

However, the given standard error of measurement is less important than the average distance between a poll’s projected margin (1% in the Conway-Mongriado race) and the actual margin.  Very few polling corporations report these later data.

Pollster.com has found that Survey USA’s projections have tended to be 4.5% off from the actual outcomes. Daily KOS showed an average difference of 6.11% between SUSA projections for the Obama-Clinton primary cycle and the actual vote.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot claim that Conway has momentum in this campaign.  To repeat, the statistical difference between the last two SUSA polls in this contest is meaningless.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot claim that Mongiardo is leading in this race.  According to SUSA, Mongiardo or Conway can win this race.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot make any claims about a candidate’s margin of victory. Chances are that it will be razor close but it might not be.

Is this Fair and Balanced? WHAS-TV in Louisville Uses Known Conway Contributor to Analyze Poll Data on the Conway-Mongiardo U.S. Senate Primary

(WHAS11) - WHAS11's Political Editor Joe Arnold talks to Democratic strategist Bob Gunnell about the results of the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass poll for the U.S. Senate race.

 

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E-mail  

From: DrTed [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 7:04 PM
To: 'Arnold, Joseph'
Subject: Is this the same Robert Gunnell that was on your blog

Mr. Arnold has not responded to my inquiry or taken this report off his blog....

 

CONWAY, JOHN WILLIAM (JACK)

Whose Last Name Begins With 'F-J'

Committee(s) Used In This Query:
CONWAY FOR SENATE

GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	09/30/2009	1000.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020010096
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	03/04/2010	400.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020243812
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	03/04/2010	600.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020243818
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	12/31/2009	1000.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020102900

Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate in Kentucky Dr. Dan Mongiardo Calls for Bold Leadership to Rebuild America and Spur Long-Term Economic Growth to Reduce Deficits

 

NEWS RELEASE

February 11, 2010
 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Mongiardo Campaign Calls Conway’s "Jobs Plan" Timid

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FRANKFORT – The campaign  of Lt. Governor and U.S. Senate candidate Daniel Mongiardo today said Attorney General Jack Conway’s proposed "jobs plan" – focusing on a series of small business tax credits to hire more workers – will not spur the level of economic growth needed to create significant job growth and get deficits under control.  Instead, Mongiardo called for a bold, comprehensive jobs plan that includes tax cuts for small businesses and fairer trade laws, but also calls for developing new coal technologies to promote private investment in coal-to-fuels, making Kentucky a leader in transforming our broken health care system and rebuilding America’s transportation infrastructure -–it's roads and bridges, rail and mass transit, and locks and dams.

Mongiardo’s campaign spokesman, Kim Geveden said, “The truth is Jack Conway’s so-called ‘jobs plan,’ which largely focuses on targeted small business tax credits, is admirable and will help on the margins; but it is a timid plan.  It is not a plan that will jumpstart our economy, create a significant number of jobs or sustain long-term economic growth sufficient to get our growing deficits under control and reduce our nation’s debt.”

“Daniel believes now is the time for bold leadership to put America back to work.  It is time to rebuild America.  It is time to invest in a stronger America.  By developing new coal technologies and reasonable environmental regulations that actually encourages private investment, rebuilding our cracking highways and rusting bridges, repairing our crumbling locks and dams and developing a 21st century public transportation system, we can spur economic growth and create millions of jobs here in Kentucky and across America.  More importantly, Daniel’s plan lays the foundation necessary to sustain long-term economic growth, which is the key to reducing our deficits and paying off our nation’s growing mountain of debt,” Geveden said.

There is broad consensus among the business community that targeted tax cuts for businesses that hire unemployed workers will not create many jobs.  According to Bill Rys, a spokesman for National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), “There’s certainly nothing wrong with giving a tax break to a business that hired a new worker, especially in these tough times.  But in terms of being an incentive to hire a lot of workers, we’re skeptical.”

The reason businesses aren’t hiring new workers is not because they are waiting for a tax credit, it is because consumers aren’t spending, buying their products or services at sufficient levels or frequency to warrant increasing production and hiring new workers.  And the reason for that is very simple; with unemployment in double digits and credit tight, consumers can’t afford it, Geveden said. 

According to an Associated Press article, “Rick Klahsen, a tax expert at the accounting firm RSM McGladery, said his clients need to see business pick up before they can hire more workers.  If demand were increased, they are saying it will take care of itself because then I will have the motivation to go out and hire new employees.”

The centerpiece to Conway’s "jobs plan" is to exempt businesses from paying a 6.2 percent Social Security tax on wages of new, previously unemployed workers. 

According to the Associated Press analysis, a company could save a maximum of $3,310 for each unemployed worker it hired after the bill is enacted and paid them a salary of $53,400 for the remainder of the year.  The business would get an additional $1,000 on its 2011 tax return if it kept the new worker for at least a full year.

The independent, non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) concluded that reducing Social Security taxes for businesses that hire unemployed workers would generate only eight to 18 full-time jobs per $1 million in tax breaks.  Geveden said Mongiardo’s plan that calls for investing in rebuilding America’s public transportation network would create and sustain an average of 32 to 36 jobs for every million dollars invested – two to four times more jobs than Conway’s plan

The Kentucky U.S. Senate Democratic Primary: Dr. Mongiardo and AG Conway Sharply Differ on Light Rail for Kentucky

January 29, 2010

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Annette Lee
(502) 498-4008x230
[email protected]

Mongiardo Renews Call for Kentucky To Be Included in Nation’s High Speed Rail Plan: Applauds  News  Kentucky To Be Included in Feasibility Study

Conway Has Said Including Kentucky in Plan, “Is Not Rooted in Reality

FRANKFORT --- In the wake of today’s announcement that the Federal Railroad Administration has approved a $250,000 grant to study the feasibility of including Kentucky in a national high speed rail network, Lt. Governor and Democratic U.S. Senate Daniel Mongiardo renewed his call --- made 2 months ago ago in a speech in Louisville --- that Kentucky be included in a new national high speed rail network.

“As I advocated two months ago, today’s announcement is the first step towards hopefully including Kentucky in a high speed national rail network that could bring badly needed jobs and economic growth to our state. I applaud today’s announcement because much like the federal interstate highway system, Kentucky can not afford to be left behind in a new national high speed rail network. As a U.S. Senator I will fight to get Kentucky included,” said Mongiardo.

Last month, Attorney General Jack Conway dismissed Mongiardo’s call for including Kentucky in a new high speed rail system saying Mongiardo’s plan was “not rooted in reality.”

With today’s  announcement, Mongiardo’s campaign spokesman Kim Geveden called on Conway to embrace Mongiardo’s call for Kentucky to be included in such a rail network.

“Daniel Mongiardo has shown he has the vision and ideas to create jobs and spur economic growth in Kentucky,” said Geveden. “In contrast, Jack Conway has dismissed the idea of Kentucky being part of a national rail plan that could create jobs and economic growth throughout Kentucky. How many more billions will be invested in developing a new rail network in other states, creating jobs in other communities before Conway acknowledges the economic benefits and jobs that could be associated with making Kentucky part of a new national rail grid?” said Geveden.

“Daniel Mongiardo believes Kentucky’s workers, small businesses and manufacturers cannot afford to be left behind.  If we do not begin working now to get Kentucky included in our nation’s high speed rail plan, the routes will pass-by our communities, along with the jobs and economic growth associated with it. Kentuckians simply cannot afford Jack Conway’s lack of vision about how to create jobs and economic growth,” said Geveden.

Dr. Dan Mongiardo Files to Run for U.S. Senate: Pledges To Put the Interests of Kentuckians Over Washington's Partisan Interests

NEWS RELEASE

January 21, 2010
 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Annette Lee
(502) 498-4008x230
[email protected]

 

FRANKFORT - Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo released the following statement today following filing his official paperwork to run for the United States Senate.

Statement of Daniel Mongiardo

While Congress is consumed by partisanship, families and communities throughout our Commonwealth are struggling. Voters are frustrated and angry with Washington; they are tired of Republican and Democratic leaders who cannot work together.  They want action.  They want a Senator who puts their interests first over Washington's partisan interests. 

My reasons for running are clear:  

In Washington, they look out for special interests and Wall Street banks. As a pro-growth independent Democrat, I'm going to fight for Kentucky working families to create jobs and economic growth in every part of our state. It's time to put the interests of Kentucky's Main Street ahead of the interests of Wall Street.  

Having grown up in a working class family in rural Kentucky, I understand the struggles Kentucky's working families are going through.  I am the one candidate in this race with a real record of fighting for them. I am the one candidate in this race who has a record of real independence, a record of taking on both Republican and Democratic leaders on behalf of Kentucky families. I am the one candidate for U.S. Senate who voters can trust to always put the interests of Kentucky's families ahead of Washington's political insiders.   

When I first ran for State Senate, I was an outsider taking on my party's political establishment and I've never changed.  Over the years I have stood up for Kentucky families-whether it was taking on the failed economic policies of Jim Bunning and George Bush or my own party's leadership over cap and trade.  Yesterday, my primary opponent claimed he would be an 'independent-minded' Democrat. But for the past year, he has consistently promoted himself as 'the preferred candidate of the national Democratic Party.'  He's raised more money from the Washington political elites and Wall Street insiders than he's raised any where else outside of Kentucky.  Now, the political winds have changed and he's trying to reinvent himself. No wonder voters are so cynical of politicians.  

As a pro-growth Democrat, I will fight for a real jobs plan to get our economy moving. My jobs plan includes making Kentucky a leader in developing 21st century healthcare information technology, tax cuts for small business and greater investment in new coal technologies - including coal-to-fuels - to create thousands of new jobs. We need to rebuild Kentucky's infrastructure to attract jobs. That means building passenger rail, including public transit in Louisville and Northern Kentucky, rebuilding our highways and bridges, our locks and dams and expanding internet broadband and cellular access in rural Kentucky. 

As the only Democratic doctor in the Senate, I will continue to work on developing a 21st century healthcare delivery system that improves quality and lowers the cost so every American will have access to quality and affordable healthcare.  The lawyers and politicians in Washington have done a great job messing up healthcare---it's time to let a doctor fix the healthcare mess. 

 I will be a Senator who fights for every region of the Commonwealth --- I will be a Senator who will put the interests of Kentucky families first.

The Three Ms of Poll Data: Misunderstood, Misinterpreted, and Misused byDrTed

I am utterly amazed that so many intelligent and well educated people misunderstand, misinterpret, and misuse research data. (I have analyzed such data for nearly all of my adult years.) Case in point is the handlers of the Democratic candidates in KY for U.S. Senate.  

In November, the DrDan team made hay over a Survey USA poll showing its guy 11 points up over Jack Conway.  Last week, I got three e-mails about a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey showing Conway up by four over Mongiardo.  Jack Conway’s campaign now has the momentum, so it claims.

I doubt it that any claims can be made by any candidate at this stage of the race, but who knows?

Let’s then examine the two polls.

One source of possible problems with any data involves the polling team’s experience.   Sampling a new population can be problematic, with unforeseen issues contaminating the results.  All researchers (including myself) have been there and done that during their careers. 

Survey USA has had a remarkable record in previous election years; PPP is a relatively recent polling organization.  Could that be the reason for the differences in the reported Kentucky Senate polls?

Let’s then examine their accuracy in recent elections. In the 2009 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, Survey USA came the closest of all the many polls in predicting the actual outcome and PPP was second best (see Pollster.Com).  These are two excellent polling organizations.

Let’s then closely examine the Survey USA and PPP data for the Kentucky Democratic Senate race.  

Both organizations have good internal numbers, with standard error of measurements around 4.2%.  What a minute. Wasn’t there only a 4% difference between Conway and Mongiardo in the PPP data?  The PPP difference was then within the margin of error.

 Also, both polls indicated a relatively high number (30%) of undecided voters. And, I suspect that very few of the sampled Conway” or Mongiardo voters are strongly committed to their candidate. Hey, it’s basketball time in the Commonwealth.

The two polls sampled a slightly different population of likely Democratic voters in the 2010 Senatorial Primary.  The PPP data contained more females and a higher percentage of likely African-American voters than the Survey USA’s data.  These two demographic groups tended to support Conway over Mongiardo.

Differences also exist in the relative influence that different regions have upon the total primary vote. PPP has Western KY and the Louisville area accounting for 61% of the vote (33% for Western Kentucky and 28% for the Louisville area). SurveyUSA has these areas accounting for 49% of the vote (23% for Western Kentucky and 26% for the Louisville area)

Both organizations, I think, have oversampled potential voters from the Louisville area. Based on a review of previous off-year elections(including the hotly contested 1998 Democratic primary for mayor), I believe that these voters should reflect a little more than 20% of the sample.

More perplexing is the wide variation between poll data in regional support for Conway and Mongiardo.  The PPP has, for example. Conway tied with Mongiardo in Western Kentucky; while Survey USA has Mongiardo leading in that area by nearly 30 points.  Voter preferences do not change that quickly. 

I wouldn’t make any bets on or investments in either candidate based upon the PPP and SurveyUSA data.  The PPP results are inconclusive. There is too much variation between polls for my taste.

So why, oh why, should you take these polls seriously?

(To examine the cited data, click SurveyUSA and PPP)

River City Mayors Endorse Dr. Daniel Mongiardo(D-KY) in U.S.Senate Democratic Primary

NEWS RELEASE

December 17,  2009 
 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Annette Lee
(502) 498-4008x230
[email protected]

 

FRANKFORT --- A group of River City Mayors announced their endorsement of Lt. Governor and U.S. Senate Candidate Daniel Mongiardo in the Democratic Primary today. This group includes the mayors of seven cities along the Ohio River in Northern Kentucky.  The River City area, home to Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson, is considered one of the more conservative areas in the state.

“It is an honor to have the endorsement of the River City Mayors. I’m excited to have their support as we work together to expand economic opportunity and improve transportation in Northern Kentucky while creating jobs,” Mongiardo said.

“We’re proud to be standing with Dr. Dan.  He has the vision, determination and the independence that Kentucky needs in a senator.  We trust him to do what’s right for not just the river cities but all of Kentucky,” said Covington Mayor Denny Bowman.

“We need a Senator who will fight for Kentucky’s working families in Washington and I think Daniel Mongiardo is the best person for the job.  I’ve supported him in the past and I support him now.  He has the experience and the leadership abilities that I know will make him an excellent United States Senator,” added Jerry Peluso, Mayor of Newport.

In addition to Bowman and Peluso, the River City Mayors endorsing Mongiardo are Bellevue Mayor John “Jack” Meyer, Dayton Mayor Ken Rankle, Highland Heights Mayor Greg Meyers, Ludlow Mayor Ed F. Schroeder and Wilder Mayor Stanley Turner.

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U.S. Senate Candidate Daniel Mongiardo(D-KY) Denounces EPA Decision to Regulate Greenhouse Gas Emissions as Attack on Kentucky’s Economy and Coal Industry

Urges Conway to Join Him in Standing Up for Kentucky’s Working Families

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FRANKFORT – Lt. Governor and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Daniel Mongiardo today strongly denounced as an “attack on Kentucky’s economy and coal industry” the Federal Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) announcement that it would begin drafting regulations to selectively limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emission without waiting for Congressional action.
 
Mongiardo said, “While the EPA may have the legal authority to regulate greenhouse gas emission, its decision to move forward unilaterally without Congressional action risks endangering Kentucky’s weak economy, without realizing any significant environmental benefits.  It defies common sense.  The EPA’s decision to selectively regulate gas emissions only at power plants, refineries and large, energy-intensive industries will fall hardest on states like Kentucky.  If this ill-conceived plan is allowed to go forward, it will cost Kentucky more jobs and increase electric rates significantly more for Kentucky consumers and damage Kentucky’s economy more relative to other states.”
 
Mongiardo challenged his Democratic Primary opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, to join him in denouncing the EPA’s decision to develop and selectively enforce regulations governing GHG emissions, “I am calling on Jack Conway to join me in taking a clear and decisive stand for Kentucky’s working families, condemn this Administration’s decision and urge Congress to take the necessary action to stop it.  Our families and our state’s economy are hanging by a thread.  Now is not the time for expressing ‘strong concerns’ or 'serious reservations.' Now is the time for standing up and being counted.  Will Jack Conway stand up for Kentucky’s working families and be counted?” Mongiardo asked.
 
Mongiardo jumped on EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson’s statement that her decision to selectively enforce greenhouse gas emissions regulations on some industries were reasonable, common-sense steps that would improve the environment “without placing an undue burden on the businesses that make up the better part of our economy.”

Mongiardo said, “Either Ms. Jackson has anointed herself as the sole arbiter of deciding what is a ‘good’ business and what is a ‘bad’ business or she is saying that she and EPA regulators under her direction – will decide which businesses, which states’ economies and which states’ consumers will bear the greater share of the costs for complying.  Either way, the audacity of such a statement is absolutely outrageous.  No bureaucrat should ever wield such unchecked power – to decide who will be ‘winners’ and who will be the ‘losers.’  Mongiardo added, “The fact is selectively imposing new emission regulations on some greenhouse gas emitters, but not all is blatantly unfair and should be unlawful.  By the agency’s own admission, refineries, power plants and large, energy-intensive industries account for only half of all GHG emissions.  Why is Ms. Jackson not applying the same rules and regulations to the other half?  Is it because doing so would be politically untenable?  Congress must assert itself and either change the law or withhold funding if the EPA insists on pursuing this ill-conceived path.”
 

 

WAVE-3 TV is Reporting that U.S. Senate Candidate Daniel Mongiardo(D-KY) Wants Kentucky to Serve as a Hub for the Proposed National High-Speed Rail System

NEWPORT, KY (AP) - Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo says if he is elected to the U.S. Senate, he will propose extending a passenger rail system into the state to serve as a hub for the country.

Mongiardo says his plan calls for two types of local passenger rail connected to a national high-speed rail system being proposed by the Obama administration...

U.S. Senate Candidate Dr. Daniel Mongiardo (D-KY) Supports Dorgan-McCain Amendment Allowing For Importation of Prescription Drugs

NEWS RELEASE

December 11, 2009 
 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Annette Lee
(502) 498-4008x230
[email protected]

Urges  Kentucky Senators To Support Measure To Reduce Costs and Increase Competition in Drug Market for Kentucky's Families and Seniors

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FRANKFORT --- Lt. Governor and U.S. Senate Candidate today voiced his support of the “Pharmaceutical Market Access and Drug Safety Act” that would allow for the import of FDA-approved prescription drugs.  Costs of these drugs from overseas are often much cheaper than in the United States. The amendment was introduced this week by Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) and Sen. John McCain (R-A.Z.).   The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has stated this plan would save the government $19.4 billion over the next decade.
 
“I strongly support allowing the importation of FDA-approved prescription drugs from Canada and other countries with safety standards comparable to the United States.  I urge Senators McConnell and Bunning to support this common sense measure to lower prescription drug costs. The last thing people should have to worry about is whether to fill a prescription or put food on the table. This bill would increase competition and drive down healthcare costs. As a doctor, I feel that this is a long overdue step to make sure Kentucky families and seniors get the prescription drugs they need at a cost they can afford,” Mongiardo said.