The Political Bridge

Using Poll Data to Predict the Winner of the Heated Democratic Primary Between Conway and Mongiardo by DrTed

 

As I have written before, my graduate degrees are in Educational Psychology and Research (which involved numerous courses in measurement and statistics.)  While I have never conducted a poll, I know how to read one.

Let’s take the latest Survey USA (SUSA) poll (co-sponsored by The Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV) on the Conway vs. Mongiardo race.  SUSA is without doubt one of the finest public polling outfits in America.  Its accuracy rate has been well established.

As most of you know by now, SUSA claims that this race is a statistical dead heat.  Mongiardo is polling at 38% and Conway at 37%.  While these data are substantially different from earlier SUSA polls on this race, they are statistically the same as those reported by SUSA a month ago.

Most of you have read that this poll has a plus or minus error rate of 3.9.  This error rate, so I have been taught, applies to the reported mean for each candidate.  The reported mean for Conway ranges from 41% to 34% and for Mongiardo from 42% to 34%.

However, the given standard error of measurement is less important than the average distance between a poll’s projected margin (1% in the Conway-Mongriado race) and the actual margin.  Very few polling corporations report these later data.

Pollster.com has found that Survey USA’s projections have tended to be 4.5% off from the actual outcomes. Daily KOS showed an average difference of 6.11% between SUSA projections for the Obama-Clinton primary cycle and the actual vote.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot claim that Conway has momentum in this campaign.  To repeat, the statistical difference between the last two SUSA polls in this contest is meaningless.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot claim that Mongiardo is leading in this race.  According to SUSA, Mongiardo or Conway can win this race.

Because of the cited statistical issues, one cannot make any claims about a candidate’s margin of victory. Chances are that it will be razor close but it might not be.

Is this Fair and Balanced? WHAS-TV in Louisville Uses Known Conway Contributor to Analyze Poll Data on the Conway-Mongiardo U.S. Senate Primary

(WHAS11) - WHAS11's Political Editor Joe Arnold talks to Democratic strategist Bob Gunnell about the results of the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass poll for the U.S. Senate race.

 

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E-mail  

From: DrTed [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 7:04 PM
To: 'Arnold, Joseph'
Subject: Is this the same Robert Gunnell that was on your blog

Mr. Arnold has not responded to my inquiry or taken this report off his blog....

 

CONWAY, JOHN WILLIAM (JACK)

Whose Last Name Begins With 'F-J'

Committee(s) Used In This Query:
CONWAY FOR SENATE

GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	09/30/2009	1000.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020010096
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	03/04/2010	400.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020243812
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	03/04/2010	600.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020243818
GUNNELL, ROBERT D	LOUISVILLE KY 40202	12/31/2009	1000.00	PERITUS PUBLIC RELATIONS/SENIOR PA	10020102900

An Analysis of the Mass Senate Race Shows that Scott Brown Won the Suburbs Big But Lost the Rural and Urban Counties info courtesy of the Rural Blog

The Republican winner, Scott Brown, won the election in Massachusetts Tuesday for the U.S. Senate on the strength of votes in suburban counties. Martha Coakley, the state's Attorney General and Democrat, won the counties that were both the most urban and the most rural.

In the five counties that had more than 20% of their population living in rural areas, Coakley won 64% of the vote. Those counties are Nantucket, Hampshire, Berkshire, Franklin and Dukes. In Dukes, the most rural county in the state, Coakley won by more than two to one.

To Read More: Click Mass Senate Vote

The Courier-Journal: A Fifth Democrat Enters the U.S. Senate Fray in Kentucky

Dr. James Buckmaster, a Henderson physician, filed candidacy papers on Monday with the Kentucky Secretary of State's office.

The other candidates in the May 18 Democratic primary are Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo; Attorney General Jack Conway; retired customs officer Darlene Fitzgerald Price; and Eastwood businessman Maurice Sweeney.

Buckmaster, 51, has never run for office before. But he said in an interview that the Senate needs a dose of common sense given “the excessive amount of spending in Washington.”

To Read More Click Fifth Democrat

New York Times: Liberal Senators Press for Expansion of Medicare

One of the changes being pushed by the liberals would lower the age of eligibility for Medicare to 55, from 65. Another would expand Medicaid to cover people with incomes up to 150 percent of the poverty level (up to $33,075 for a family of four).  

A third liberal proposal would require insurers to spend a specified share of premiums — about 90 percent — on clinical services and activities that improve the quality of care.  

Read More Click Liberal Senators

Bloomberg Press: Fight Looms Between House and Senate Democrats on Cutting Funds to Medicare Advantage

A fight still looms between House and Senate Democrats(regarding cutes to Medicare Advantage). The House health-care bill contains about $50 billion more in cuts to Medicare Advantage than the Senate. The House plan also would target rural areas for much of the reduction. In the Senate, where Montana’s Max Baucus and other lawmakers from rural states wield more influence, Democrats are looking to cities for savings.

To Read More Click Bloomberg Press

Daniel Mongiardo, Democratic Candidate for U.S. Senate in Kentucky, Supports Troop Increase to Defeat Al-Qaeda

NEWS RELEASE

December 1, 2009 
 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Annette Lee
(502) 498-4008x230
[email protected]

 

Statement by Daniel Mongiardo in response to President Obama's Presidential Address:

 

"I believe the President has thoughtfully explored the various options, gathered diverse view points from his political, national security and military advisors as well as our international allies and arrived at a sound decision. His deliberative process is a refreshing departure from his predecessor’s shoot from the hip, secretive approach to making difficult decisions that impact our men and women in uniform, their families and our nation.

 

I support the President’s proposal to increase our troops in Afghanistan to defeat Al-Qaeda and their terrorist supporters. I believe we have to defeat the Al-Qaeda terrorists responsible for the attacks on 9/11 who are still present in the region and remain a threat to our national security.  I believe the President clearly defined the mission, how he intends to accomplish that mission and equally important a reasonable time frame for when we can expect to bring the war in Afghanistan to a close.

 

With Fort Campbell and Fort Knox and thousands of Kentuckians serving in uniform, I believe we must do everything we can to make sure they have the resources necessary to complete their mission as safely and quickly as possible.”

 

- Daniel Mongiardo

 

Announcing the Holiday Party for the Metro Democratic Club and the Louisville-Jefferson County Democratic Party

MDC & LJCDP Holiday Party

Wednesday, December 9^th

6:30 to 8:30 pm

American Legion Hall on Bardstown Road

Louisville MoJo.Com Profiles a New Face on the Kentucky Political Scene: Kimberly Greenwell

 

Democrat Kimberly Greenwell remembers when she decided to run for public office. Following a serious 2007 automobile accident, the 32-year-old advertising sales executive said the idea of giving back to the community through elective office simply came to her.

Now, some two years after deciding to try her hand at electoral politics for the first time, Greenwell has focused her sights on a formidable opponent in Republican state Rep. Ron Crimm.

One issue that may spark disagreement between the two candidates is expanded gambling. Greenwell supports it; Crimm’s against it.

Read More: Click Greenwell

News Release from the Dr. Dan Mongiardo(D-KY) Campaign for U.S. Senate:Attorney General Jack Conway(Dem candidate for U.S. Senate)Fails to Report Huge Investment in Kinder-Morgan Energy of Texas on State's Executive Branch Ethics Form

 

NEWS RELEASE
November 17, 2009   
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Kim Geveden
(502) 682-2010
[email protected]

Annette Lee
(502) 498-4008x230
[email protected]

 

Conway Invests in the Millions on Texas Energy Products over Kentucky Coal Workers  

"Jack Conway's apparent failure to report the Kinder-Morgan stock and the fact he owns millions in a Texas company that would cost Kentuckians their jobs while he makes huge profits all raise serious questions that Conway needs to answer to Kentucky voters," said Geveden.

FRANKFORT---According to federal and state financial disclosure reports, Attorney General Jack Conway failed to disclose on his 2008 Kentucky Financial Disclosure report that he purchased $1 million-$5 million of Kinder-Morgan Energy (LP) stock, a Texas energy company that favors developing natural gas over developing clean Kentucky coal.

As reported in last Monday's Courier-Journal, according to his U.S. Senate Personal Financial Disclosure Report filed with the Senate Clerk on August  13, 2009, Conway reported investing between $1 million and $5 million dollars in Kinder-Morgan in 2008.

However, a review of his 2008 State Financial Disclosure Report filed with the Kentucky Executive Branch Ethics Commission on April 8, 2009 shows that nowhere does Conway list the Kinder-Morgan stock purchase.

"When it comes to Jack Conway's financial ties to the Texas-based energy company, Kinder-Morgan, the more we learn, the more foul the smell.  It is bad enough that Jack Conway's largest financial asset---worth millions---is stock in a Texas energy company that favors natural gas over developing clean Kentucky coal. Now, it appears Attorney General Conway did not disclose the Kinder-Morgan stock purchase on his 2008 Kentucky financial disclosure report. Jack Conway has serious questions to answer," said Kim Geveden, campaign spokesman for U.S. Senate candidate Daniel Mongiardo.

"Which financial report accurately reflects Jack Conway's financial holdings - his financial disclosure statement filed with Kentucky's Executive Branch Ethics Commission or his Financial Disclosure statement filed with the U.S. Senate Clerk?  What is Jack Conway's explanation for the discrepancy? Did the Attorney General purchase $1 million to $5 million shares (91% of his entire financial assets) of Kinder-Morgan stock in 2008 or 2009?  Exactly, how much does Conway have invested in Kinder-Morgan?" asked Geveden.

"But most importantly, Jack Conway needs to explain why he has more than 90% of his wealth invested in a Texas energy company that advocates using natural gas to replace Kentucky coal---that will destroy tens of thousands of Kentucky jobs and cause electric rates to soar,"  said Geveden.

Kinder-Morgan is one of the largest natural gas transporters in North America.  It controls over 37,000 miles of pipelines to transport natural gas throughout the United States and Canada. According to a July Houston Chronicle op-ed by Richard Kinder, CEO of Kinder-Morgan, to address climate change, "natural gas and nuclear are the only answers for the next 10 to 20 years," while developing clean coal technology will waste "enormous sums of money.

Not only is over 90% of Conway's assets invested in Kinder Morgan, but according to Conway's 3rd quarter  FEC report, Sara Morgan, the wife of founder William V. Morgan, has contributed $4800 to Conway's campaign.

According to Natural Gas Week, natural gas use will go up as natural gas is substituted for coal under cap and trade legislation.  As reported over the summer, Jack Conway said he supports cap and trade legislation.

"No matter what Jack Conway says on cap and trade now, his investments tell the real story. If cap and trade passes, natural gas use will go up while coal use will go down. As a result, Jack Conway will make huge profits on his natural gas holdings, while Kentucky families lose their jobs and pay higher electric bills.  Kentucky families simply can't afford Jack Conway," said Geveden.