The best prediction of any outcome is what happened previously under similar conditions. Here are the figures for the Democratic turnout in Jefferson County for off-year primaries since 1994.
|
Years |
# of Registered Democrats |
Democratic Votes |
% Turnout |
|
2006 |
264,893 |
60,222 |
22.7 |
|
2002 |
260,999 |
64,628 |
24.76 |
|
1998 |
252,105 |
82,750 |
32.8 |
|
1994 |
234,274 |
52.599 |
22.4 |
Based on that information, here are my projections concerning turnout for the 2010 Democratic primaries in Jefferson County
|
|
# of Registered Democrats |
Democratic Votes |
% Turnout |
|
Projected Turnout 1 |
289,342 |
81,015 |
28% |
|
Projected Turnout 2 |
289,342 |
75,228 |
26% |
Projected Turnout1 has been calculated with 1998 primary set at 40 %( rather than 32.8%) to reflect the last contested mayor’s race in Louisville.
Projected Turnout2 has been calculated with the 1998 primary set at 32.8%