Last
month, Jack Conway made the biggest wager of his life.
No, it
is not the wager that he might have laid on "Stately Victor" in
the recent Bluegrass Stages. No wonder he
kissed that colt.
No, it
is not the gamble of racing his colt in the Kentucky Derby against more
seasoned colts.
No, it
is not the wager he probably made on his favorite college basketball team—Duke
University. Hey, I would do the same for
my alma mater—KU—Kansas University, that is.
All
these bets (if made) were peanuts compared to the financial gamble that Conway
has taken on the U. S. Senate race.
Team
Conway rolled the proverbial dice on going up on TV early---very early. He also went negative very early, which is
highly unusual. Most campaigns start
positive with a bio piece and then negative.
As of
this writing, Conway—like his colt and alma mater—win. Mongiardo’s (his primary opponent) poll
numbers have fallen from approximately 45% to 35% in the latest Survey USA poll
while Conway’s numbers have inched forward from 27% to 32%.
The
U.S. Senate race is now a horse race, with Mongiardo seemingly faltering in the
stretch.
Upon
further review, Conway might have lost with this gamble. How’s that, you ask.
Because
the Mongiardo team has made great strides in closing the gap with regards to
the very important cash at hand reports (see links).
Conway,
at one time, had a 2-1 advantage in campaign money. His currently lead is down to 1.3 million to
8,000,000, which was calculated at the beginning of last month.
Conway,
last month, went up on TV approximately two weeks before the DrDan team
did. One would then expect that DrDan
has further closed the distance, concerning cash-at-hand, with Team
Conway.
By
going negative so early, Conway has become vulnerable to any negatives thrown
at him by Team Mongiardo. Both candidates are equally trading blows on
who is the baddest dude.
In the
meantime, Dr. Rand Paul is smiling all the way to the election bank. His team doesn’t have to do much oppositional
research in the coming fall. (Regardless of the reports coming from the Trey Grayson
camp, I believe that Paul will be the Republican nominee.)
So what
has Conway lost for spending and going negative so early, other than Paul
sprinting off to an early lead in the fall meet? A lot!
If
Conway wins the primary and loses the general election, his political career is
just about done. K-bash! He will be
remembered as the candidate who insured the election of Dr. Rand Paul to the
U.S. Senate.
If
Conway loses the primary, then he will have to refund beacoup bucks to his
campaign contributors; many of whom have made the $4800 max for the primary and
general elections. Retiring this debt
will not be easy.
I would
not have taken the chance that Conway took, especially in this political
climate.
But
then again, I don’t have the money to own a high-price thoroughbred.
I only
like to wager a few dollars on games of chance, which politics seems to be
these days.