The impact of tax cuts and "cash for clunkers" on personal disposable incomes and retail sales have waned. Ex-auto industrial production and ISM are weak. Job losses are comparable to the past recessions. Bank credit is still contracting. The impact of tax credit on home sales will begin to fade. Durable goods orders are still under pressure. Inventory adjustment and stimulus measures will drive growth to positive territory starting H2 2009. Early withdrawal of policy stimulus or increase in commodity prices pose the risk of a "double-dip" recession in late 2010 or early 2011.