The Political Bridge

Bruce Lunsford, Gov. Steve Beshear, AFL-CIO Exec. V.P. Arlene Holt Baker Kick Off Final Election Mobilization in Kentucky

Media Advisory for Thursday, Oct. 30

Contact: Rachele Huennekens 202-637-5006

On Thursday, October 30, Bruce Lunsford will join AFL-CIO Executive Vice President Arlene Holt Baker and hundreds of union families in Louisville to participate in a final effort to mobilize union voters.

Lunsford and Holt Baker will meet with canvassers for Working America, the AFL-CIO’s community affiliate, and join union volunteers at a Raytheon plant to rally union members for working family candidates.

Later, Lunsford and Holt Baker will join Governor Steve Beshear and the president of the United Mine Workers Union at a massive rally to call for a landslide victory for working family candidates.

"This is the election when working families will stand up and say ‘enough’," said Executive Vice President Holt Baker. "We have spent too many years struggling under the weight of outrageous health care costs, massive job loss, and wage stagnation, while Wall Street’s bottom lines have ballooned. In the last few days before Election Day, Kentucky’s working families will hit the streets for the last time to turn around America and elect candidates who will build an economy that works for all."

The AFL-CIO’s mobilization effort will reach the single largest voter bloc in the state. More than 300,000 union voters - including more than 60,000 members of Working America - are expected to cast their ballots on Election Day, comprising 30 percent of the statewide electorate.

WHO: Senatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford, Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear, AFL-CIO Executive Vice President Arlene Holt Baker, United Mine Workers President Cecil Roberts, and hundreds of AFL-CIO union volunteers

WHAT: Briefing, Worksite leaflet and Get-out-the-Vote Rally WHEN AND WHERE: Thursday, October 30.

Working America canvasser briefing, 1:45pm, 2401 S. Shelby St.,

Louisville.

●

Worksite leaflet with members of IAM Local Lodge 830, 2:45pm,

Raytheon Corp.,

6201 Strawberry Ln., Louisville.

●

Rally, 7:00pm, IBEW Local 369 Hall, 4315 Preston Hwy # 102,

Louisville.

Paid for by the AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education (COPE) Political Contributions Committee,

www.aflcio.org

, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

###

Rachele Huennekens

AFL-CIO Media Outreach

(202) 637-5006

MORE INFO ABOUT KY'S JOB WOES FROM THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

• California (7.7 percent unemployment, from 5.6 percent a year ago)
• Kentucky (7.1 percent unemployment, from 5.4 percent a year ago)
• Michigan (8.7 percent unemployment, from 7.3 percent a year ago)
• Mississippi (7.8 percent unemployment, from 6.3 percent a year ago)
• Nevada (7.3 percent unemployment, from 5.0 percent a year ago)
• Ohio (7.2 percent unemployment, from 5.7 percent a year ago)
• Rhode Island (8.8 percent unemployment, from 5.1 percent a year ago)
• South Carolina (7.3 percent unemployment, from 5.9 percent a year ago)
• Tennessee (7.2 percent unemployment, from 4.9 percent a year ago)

(States with the lowest unemployment rates? They include: )

• Nebraska (3.5 percent unemployment, from 3.1 percent a year ago)
• North Dakota (3.6 percent unemployment, from 3.3 percent a year ago)
• Oklahoma (3.8 percent unemployment, from 4.3 percent a year ago)
• South Dakota (3.2 percent unemployment, from 2.9 percent a year ago)
• Utah (3.5 percent unemployment, from 2.8 percent a year ago)

THE FED GOV'T REPORTS: KY HIT HARD BY THE BUSH-MCONNELL RECESSION

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htmRegional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Technical information: Employment: (202) 691-6559 USDL 08-1496 http://www.bls.gov/sae/ Unemployment: (202) 691-6392 http://www.bls.gov/lau/ For release: 10:00 A.M. (EDT) Media contact: (202) 691-5902 Tuesday, October 21, 2008

. In September, nonfarm payroll employment rose in 9 states and fell in 41 states and the District of Columbia.  The largest over-the-month gains in the level of employment occurred in Missouri (+3,800), Nebraska (+2,200), Wyoming (+1,800), West Virginia (+1,500), and Virginia (+1,300).
Wyoming experienced the largest over-the-month percentage increase in employment (+0.6 percent), followed by Nebraska and West Virginia (+0.2 per-cent each) and Arkansas, Missouri, and North Dakota (+0.1 percent each). The largest over-the-month employment level decreases occurred in Michigan (-28,300), Georgia (-22,300), Louisiana (-17,500), South Carolina (-14,800), and Arizona and Kentucky (-13,200 each).  The District of Columbia (-1.2
percent) recorded the largest over-the-month percentage decrease in employment, followed by Louisiana (-0.9 percent), South Carolina (-0.8 percent), and Idaho, Kentucky, and Michigan (-0.7 percent each).  Over the year, non-farm employment increased in 24 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in 26 states.  The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment occurred in Wyoming (+2.8 percent), Texas (+2.4 percent), the District of Columbia (+2.0 percent), and South Dakota (+1.6 percent).  Rhode Island recorded the largest over-the-year percentage decrease in employment (-2.6 percent), followed by Arizona (-2.2 percent), Michigan (-1.8 percent), Georgia (-1.5 percent), Florida (-1.4 percent), and Idaho
(-1.2 percent). 

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IS TIGHTING BUT NOT AS THOUGHT

Info from Teegan Goddard's Political Wire http://www.politicalwire.com/

Cronkite/Eight Poll: McCain Could Lose Arizona

A new Cronkite/Eight Poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 46% to 44%.

Said poll director Bruce Merrill: "Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."

These results are similar to two polls released yesterday that also showed a tight race in McCain's home state.

 

Suffolk Poll: Obama Opens Lead in Nevada

A new Suffolk poll in Nevada shows Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a 10-point lead over Sen. John McCain among likely voters, 50% to 40%.
 
Key finding: "The double-digit spread is a marked switch from just over a month ago, when a Suffolk University poll found a virtual dead heat between the two candidates in the Silver State. It's the first Nevada poll this year to find a double-digit lead for Obama."

 

InsiderAdvantage: McCain Clings to Lead in Georgia

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia finds Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by just one point, 48% to 47%.

Said pollster Matt Towery: "Obama had a better shot of winning Georgia than North Carolina or Florida but he's letting it slip away."

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) holds a two point edge over challenger Jim Martin (D).

 

Mason-Dixon: Montana Is Close

A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls is out today:

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, McCain 39%

North Carolina: Obama 47%, McCain 47%

Montana: McCain 48%, Obama 44%

A Response from the Chair of The Committee to Retain Judge Abramson

Dear Mr. Shlecter,

I am a Louisville attorney and chair of the Committee to Retain Justice Abramson. She and I practiced law together for fifteen years before she went on the bench.

Your post of October 26, which I saw today, is based on and repeats completely inaccurate information about Justice Lisabeth Hughes Abramson.

Justice Abramson did not fill out the Right to Life questionnaire which is sent to all judicial candidates, nor has she received or accepted contributions from Margie Montgomery, nor has she been endorsed by Kentucky Right to Life. In fact, as she normally does with interest groups, she returned the questionnaire to Right to Life without filling it out and sent a letter thanking them for their interest, explaining that it was her practice not to fill out such questionnaires. Justice Abramson referred the recipient, as she does everyone else, to her biography and her website, www.justiceabramson.com.

Neither there nor anywhere else does Justice Abramson take positions on issues that might come before her on the Court.

Last week, when she was made aware of Marge FitzGerald's e-mail quoted in the blog, Justice Abramson immediately called the FitzGerald home and spoke with Judge Richard Fitzgerald. Judge FitzGerald then sent an October 22 email to the people who had been the addressees of the original email from his wife withdrawing the allegation reprinted in your blog. The email read:

I have been informed by Justice L Abramson that she did not seek the endorsement of the Right to Life Organization, respond to any questionnaire nor receive contributions from the organization. If you review the Right to Life endorsements on their web sites they do not state that the Justice returned a questionnaire and knowing her, she would have appropriately declined comment on positions on issues which would come before the court.” Richard FitzGerald

In fact, the Kentucky Right to Life has apparently “recommended” Justice Abramson. She did not seek that recommendation and was completely unaware of it until told by others. The FitzGeralds corrected the original false e-mail even before your blog was posted, but apparently it is still out there being forwarded. We believe it is incumbent upon you immediately to correct the false information in the blog entry of October 26.

Thanks very much for your prompt attention to this correction.

Best regards,

John S. Reed
REED WEITKAMP SCHELL & VICE PLLC
500 West Jefferson Street, Suite 2400
Louisville, Kentucky 40202-2812

MCCONNELL AND THE ECONOMIC WELLBEING OF KENTUCKIANS: WHAT DO THE JOB DATA SHOW?

The economic wellbeing of Kentuckians under McConnell’s watch as U.S. Senator is the one and only issue of this campaign. (Before going further, I must state the following caveat: No one politician or businessperson can claim total responsibility or blame for an area’s economic prosperity or problems. However, Senator McConnell has had a most influential role in the country’s economic policy for the last decade.)

 McConnell, the champion of free trade and tax cuts, insinuates that these policies have created many new jobs in Kentucky.  He notes in Team Mitch.com, “The tax cuts we passed in 2001 and 2003 continue to help improve our economy and create jobs.”

Kentucky Democrats, champions of worker protection, claim that the 24 years of McConnell in the senate have been disastrous for Kentucky’s economy.  “After 24 long years of Mitch McConnell in Washington, Kentucky’s economy is in serious trouble (from Bruce2008.com).

So who is right?  

The Workforce Kentucky’s website states that Kentucky (as of February 27, 2008) had the highest number of nonfarm jobs in Kentucky's history.  Kentucky has added a net 116,200 nonfarm jobs. Job creation, according to this report, has been especially strong in the: (a) government and public education sector; (b) trade, transportation and utilities sector; (c)  leisure and hospitality sector; (d) educational and health services; and (e) professional and business sector.

This WorkForce Kentucky report also indicates problem areas in the Kentucky’s economy.  The information sector has experienced no growth over last decade.  This sector contains many of the so-called professions of the 21^st Century, such as Internet and data processing related jobs.  Kentucky’s economy is not keeping up with the information age.

Kentucky’s manufacturing, appraisal, and mining industries have been hard hit with job losses over the last ten years.   The WorkForce Kentucky website states: “In the last 10 years, the manufacturing sector has reported 50,800 fewer jobs… 76 percent drop in the total number of apparel industry jobs in Kentucky in the last 10 years."

These losses have hit Kentucky’s rural citizens.  The apparel industry was for decades the cornerstone of rural manufacturing in the south-central part of Kentucky. (http://www.kltprc.net/books/farms/Chpt_3.htm).  Most of our apparel jobs have found its way to Chinahttp://www.americanmanufacturing.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/briefingpaper219_finalreally.pdf). )

The loss of manufacturing jobs (also to China) hurts Kentuckians’ minorities and working people very hard.  These Kentuckians have lost jobs that paid substantially more and offered better benefits than jobs in other industries.

The Bush-McConnell policy of tax breaks for corporations has also hurt the American worker.  Michael Rapoport and Steven D. Jones wrote (The Wall Street Journal of July 29, 2005) that American Jobs Creation Act of 2005 led to more offshoring of American jobs.  Multinationals were supposed to use a one-time tax break to bring jobs back to America; however, many corporations, especially those in information technologies, utilize this break to expand their business interests in Asia.

                                                      

Kentucky’s working people and rural citizens are, seemingly, economically the poorer over the last ten years. The Bush-McConnell policies of free trade and tax breaks have failed them and correspondingly have reduced Kentucky’s tax base. 

AN ANALYSIS OF POLL DATA FOR POLITICAL JUNKIES: THE LUNSFORD-MCONNELL RACE by DrTed

 

Everyday, the media, the internet and even your friends have been supplying you, Ms. and Mr. Political Junkie, with poll data. 

 

By now, you are really hooked on the stuff.    You need to get a poll data fix several times a day. Your stomach churns right before every fix.  You are euphoric when your candidate lengthens his/her lead.  You go into cold sweats when your candidate is a few points down from yesterday.  

 

By now, countless polls showing different results on the same race are blowing your everlasting mind.  

 

To make matters worse, you are getting poor stuff (with the information about those poll numbers not being of the highest quality).  

 

Case in point is the poll data for the Lunsford-McConnell senate race. 

 

During the week of October 20, three reputable polls reported three different findings concerning this race. Survey USA had this race tied. Rasmussen Reports had McConnell up by 7 points, and Research 2000 had McConnell up by 4 points.

 

Ms/Mr. Political Guru on TV Land will tell ya to average those polls. Accordingly, McConnell is up by four points. 

 

I contend that Ms/Mr. Political Guru is supplying you with impure stuff (incomplete info).

 

As they say on ESPN Sports Center, we need to look inside the (poll) numbers.

 

This analysis yields two potentially troublesome findings for the Lunsford campaign. 

 

Across surveys, Lunsford is polling around 74% of the sampled African-America vote.  The Survey USA poll also shows McConnell’s receiving 24% of the sampled African-American vote.  Researach2000 shows McConnell with 5% of this vote and 22% still undecided.  Without (at least, 80%) of the African-American vote, Lunsford cannot win this race.

 

Analyses of the Rasmussen Reports and Research 2000 survey have also revealed high negative ratings for Lunsford and McConnell. (Survey USA does not report such data.)  In Rasmussen Reports, McConnell’s e negatives are at 42% and Lunsford’s negatives at 47%; while Research2000 found (just about) the reverse results.  Such results do not bode well for Mr. Lunsford.   If a challenger is going to win, the voters must see him/her as the more desirable choice.   

 

Lunsford can still take much comfort in this week’s polling numbers.  Despite the cited problems with his polling numbers, Lunsford is on McConnell’s proverbial heels.    Moreover, Survey USA found that 16% of the sampled voters might change their minds.

 

This political junkie can’t wait to get more polling data fixes on this exciting race.

 

By the way, does anybody have a 12-step program for political junkies?   

THE IMPACT OF A MCCONNELL VICTORY ON SOLVING OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS AND REBUILDING OUR FRAGILE INFRASTRUCTURE by DrTed

 

 They tell me that the best way to predict the future is to examine the past.  The past for the McConnell minority in the Senate is summed up in one word, “filibuster.” The Republican minority in the senate has successfully filibustered 104 times during the 110^th Congress. 

 

According to the Wall Street Journal, these filibusters have blocked(the Journal says” “Saved by the Filibusters”) legislation on prescription drug price controls, renegotiating mortgage contracts in bankruptcy, and a windfall profit taxes on oil companies.  The filibuster stopped legislation on the “Lilly Ledbetter Act, which would have liberalized the statute of limitations on workplace discrimination suits.

The progressive Campaign for America’s Future (courtesy of David Meyer) also notes that the McConnell led filibusters blocked legislation on other important energy, environmental, and workplace issues. One of these pieces of legislation would have “dramatically reduced greenhouse gas emissions and would have raised billions of dollars that could have helped defray the rising cost of gas for working people.”

 

 A McConnell victory would probably mean more of the same for the 111^th Congress.

 

A McConnell victory would probably also mean little or no action on H.R. 7110: The Job Creation and Unemployment Act of 2008.  This Act would create or sustain more than a million jobs in rebuilding our infrastructure.  This act would allocate $199,439,959 to Kentucky to rebuild its infrastructure.  http://transportation.house.gov/Media/File/Full%20Committee/Stimulus/Highway%20and%20Bridge%20Investment.pdf). You can kiss that money goodbye with a McConnell victory.

 

You can also kiss goodbye needed legislation to rebuild our fragile infrastructure.  The American Society of Civil Engineers (ACS: http://www.asce.org) has argued that $1.6  trillion is needed over the next five years to get America’s where it needs to be.  According to the ASCE, Congress must enact the National Infrastructure Bank Act to finance infrastructure projects, which was introduced by Senators Dodd(D) and Hagel (R ) in July, 2007.  This bank project, according to the experts, is the best approach for financing the needed infrastructure projects.
 

Harold L. Sirkin in the October 21, 2008 issue of Business Week claims that  rebuilding America’s infrastructure is vital to its ability to compete in the global economy.  Other countries, especially China, are in the midst of infrastructure building boom.  China has recently built 100 airports and 186,000 miles of roads. It also invested $200 billion in railroad development.

 

A McConnell victory would most likely lead to limited action on needed legislation to get America moving again.

SENATOR MCCONNELL, AIG, AND AID FOR ZIMBABWE (info from Ivonne Roveira)

 

Humanitarian Aid for Zimbabwe

“Action” withdrawn in 1996.

An amendment to H.R. 3540 conditioned humanitarian aid for the African nation of Zimbabwe on its doing the bidding of a New York-based multinational insurance giant, American International Group.

 

As reported in Time magazine and the online Internet magazine, Salon, the government of Zimbabwe was requiring its citizens to control the major part of companies doing business in Zimbabwe. (The United States itself requires this in the television industry, which is why Australian-born Rupert Murdoch became an American citizen so he could buy up what eventually became the Fox Network.) In response, AIG met with aides to Senator McConnell, who was chairman of the Senate Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittee. According to Salon, AIG drafted an amendment itself and sent it on to Robin Cleveland, the subcommittee’s staff director, on July 17, 1996, a day after meeting with AIG executive Edmund Lee. AIG’s amendment limited humanitarian aid to Zimbabwe $10 million — half of the previous year’s allotment — unless Zimbabwe exempted U.S. financial-services companies, according to Salon.

 

Despite the memo, obtained by Salon, Cleveland insists that her committee does not allow corporations to draft legislation.

 

The U.S. State Department and the Agency for International Development feared that, without the humanitarian aid, the AIDS crisis would worsen in Zimbabwe, a country in which more than 25 percent of adults are HIV positive and where experts fear the life expectancy will soon be down in the 40s, Salon said.

 

Senator McConnell followed AIG’s travails closely enough to publicly congratulate Zimbabwe on the Senate floor on July 25, 1996, for caving in to the pressure he, AIG and others had exerted, but included a warning:

 

[T]his committee was prepared to deal with a current trade dispute and nationalization of foreign assets in Zimbabwe, but has withdrawn action relying upon the good faith representations of Ambassador [Amos Bernard Muvengwa] Midzi of the Republic of Zimbabwe that the problems involving United States companies have been mediated successfully. We congratulate the leadership of the Republic of Zimbabwe for its constructive actions and hope there will be no further need for this committee to review this matter…

PREDICTIONS ON US CONGRESSIONAL RACES AND KENTUCKY SENATE RACES by DrTed

 

 

U.S. Senate Races: Democratic Gains (so far) 7

Alaska—Begich over Stevens

CO: Mark Udall over Schaeffer

OR: Merley over Smith

NC: Hagan over Dole

NH: Shaheen over Sununu

NM: Tom Udall over Pearce

VA:  Mark Warner over Gilmore

 

Too Close to Call

GA(Yes, GA): Martin vs. Chambliss

KY:  Lunsford vs. McConnell

MN: Franken vs. Coleman

MS(Yes, MS): Musgrove vs. Wicker

 

 

U.S. House of Representatives

Democrats gain 30, stretching its numbers to 263

 

KY’s 2^nd Congressional District: Boswell vs. Guthrie: Too close to call (Hardin and Bullitt Counties are keys to this race)

 

KY's 3^rd Congressional District: Yarmuth 60%; Northup 40%

 

Kentucky State Senate

Democrats retain all their seats; with a potential gain of 1-2 seats. Newberry wins in Southern KY; Hubbard loses in Western KY; and Groob-Westwood is too close to call in Northern KY.