The Political Bridge

HOLD EVERYTHING ON LATEST BLUEGRASS (MASON-DIXON)POLL ON KY SENATE RACE

How to read tables:  In parentheses are the actual numbers of respondents.  There are, for example, 346 likely voters for Lunsford and 382 likely voters for McConnell. Unfortunately, the total numbers for likely voters and likely voters for by race are not the same. Evidently, some people picked two categories here or there was a reporting error.

.

                          LUNSFORD   MCCONNELL OTHER UNDECIDED TOTALS

TOTAL

LIKELY VOTERS        42.4%               46.8%    1.6%    9.3%

Raw Numbers         (346)                (382)    (13)       (76)                817

BY RACE:  U.S. SENATE VOTE WITH LEANERS(Likely voters)

                         LUNSF  MCCON  OTHER    UNDECIDED  TOTS

WHITE               42%    48.3%       1.8%       7.9%

Raw Numbers (309)   (355)        (13)          (58)         735

                                                                                    (90% of sample)

BLACK              50.0      26.1%       0%          2.9%                                        

Raw Numbers   (23)     (12)          (0)          (11)       46

                                                                                       (6% of sample)

HISPANIC         0%      100%         0%          0%              

Raw Numbers   (0)     (1)            (0)           (0)               1

OTHER              58.8%   29.4%    0%            11.8%        

Raw Numbers   (10)      (5)         (0)            (2)               19

                                                                                          (2% of sample)

REFUSED         

TO  SAY            22%       50.0%  0%              27.8%    

Raw Numbers (4)         (9)         (0)               (5)              18   

                                                                                    (2% of sample)

For more info on these variables click here: http://www.courier-journal.com/assets/B21215031031.PDF

 

 

Latest Polling on KY Senate Race(including Lunsford internal polling) from the Swing State Project

Garin Hart Yang for Bruce Lunsford (10/26-27, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 45 (45)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here we are, a few days before the election, and the Minority Leader of the United States Senate is ahead by only two points and under the 50% threshold. That's hardly a position of strength for the mighty McConnell. The polling memo also notes that the sample may be underestimating African-American turnout by a significant margin -- enough to perhaps give Lunsford an extra couple of points.

On another note, Lunsford has a pair of new ads out -- one featuring excerpts from a stump speech from the Bubba Queen herself, Hillary Clinton (what an extraordinary sign of the times), and the other featuring a famous pack of bloodhounds.

UPDATE: The latest Rasmussen poll has McConnell ahead by 51-44, essentially unchanged from last week, when Mitch led by 50-43. Rasmussen has been a bit friendlier to McConnell than other pollsters have in recent weeks, but we'll find out which poll is more accurate soon enough.

LATER UPDATE: Mason-Dixon has McConnell up by 47-42, which is an improvement for him over late September, when the race was nearly tied at 45-44

The Roper Poll: Battleground Presidential States and Key Senate Races

Democratic senate candidates are fearing well in New Hampshire, North Carolina, CO, and VA. Obama is doing well too.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_Topline_10_28_2008.pdf

Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leads by five points

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081030/NEWS01/81030011/1008/NEWS01

 

Joseph Gerth • [email protected] • October 30, 2008

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell holds a five point lead over Democrat Bruce Lunsford in the closing days of the election, according to the latest Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

The telephone survey of 817 likely voters was taken Oct. 27-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

According to the poll, McConnell leads 47-42, with 9 percent of voters saying they are still undecided. Two percent of voters said they favor other candidates — though there are no other candidates in the race.

RASSMUSSEN REPORT HAS MCONNELL UP IN KY

Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell still holds a seven-point lead on Democratic opponent Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, is ahead of Lunsford 51% to 44%. Five percent (5%) of Kentucky voters remain undecided. That puts McConnell in a more comfortable position than many of his Republican colleagues, but any incumbent polling just over 50% will be at least a little bit nervous on Election Day.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_senate

KY 2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SURVEYUSA(WHAS-TV)POLL HAS REPUB GUTHRIE IN COMMAND

Fight for Open House Seat in KY2, Guthrie May Hold The Line for GOP: In an election for the open US House seat in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District, Republican Brett Gurhtrie may have the votes to defeat Democrat David Boswell, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill, and WHAS-TV in Louisville. Guthrie gets 53% today, Boswell 43%. 31% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican in the House race. Boswell and Guthrie tie among seniors, but SurveyUSA polling has Guthrie ahead in all other age groups. McCain carries the district by 27 points. Republican Guthrie runs 9 points weaker than McCain. Democrat Boswell runs 8 points stronger than Barack Obama. In the district, McCain has Plus 25 Favorability; Obama has Minus 22 Favorability; Guthrie has Plus 14 Favorability; Boswell has Plus 4 Favorability. Republican Ron Lewis, the 7-term incumbent who is not seeking re-election, has Plus 40 Favorability. 800 adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA. Of them, 673 were registered to vote. Of them 587 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day....

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5f470fda-9379-4c65-86c6-623a0f8b9f0e

STATEMENT -- FROM REP. REGINALD MEEKS IN RESPONSE TO THE OBAMA EFFIGY HANGING ON UK'S CAMPUS

There are times when the body politic needs to be shocked into recognizing - and admitting - what some parts of the body know to be true. The Kentucky we want to believe exists, and the Kentucky that does exist for many is not the same Kentucky. 

 The hate-filled, cowardly and despicable actions of whomever was behind the planning for and committing of this crime should serve as a reminder to each of us that we must be honest with ourselves, and work diligently to wipe out the flames this act is designed to fan.

 I urge the authorities at the University of Kentucky, and the relevant federal and state authorities, to investigate this crime, find the person or persons responsible, and to prosecute the matter to the fullest extent of the law.

 I also urge each of them to reach out to the African American students and other students of color at the University of Kentucky and in the Lexington community to assure them of their ultimate safety and protection today, and in these days leading up to the General Election.

 Any and all steps should be taken in the Lexington community to ensure this act does not have a chilling effect on the community's safety as they go to the polls next Tuesday.

 President Lee Todd and his staff, deserve to be recognized for having the sensitivity and understanding to respond quickly and comprehensively to this threat to the peace and tranquility of all Kentuckians,regardless of color. 

 Finally, I want to say to Senator Barack Obama, Michele Obama and their entire family that this act is but one more on a long list of obstacles, challenges, yes, threats, you have faced as you have climbed the rough side of this mountain.  I am deeply hurt that the state and the people in Kentucky whom I love would be represented to you, and to the country, in such a dishonorable way.  We understand this is a symptom, and the best way to treat this symptom is for the Nation to have a successful

General Election on Tuesday, and prove, once and for all, that we recognize the character of the man, the strength of his heart and the power of his convictions are the cure American needs to end this sickness. God bless and keep you and your family safe.

State Rep. Reginald Meeks, D-Louisville

Senator Hillary Clinton is Returning to Kentucky to Campaign for Bruce Lunsford

Hillary is coming in to Work for Bruce Lunsford on Sunday, November 2nd, 2008.  At 12:00 Hillary will be at the Hazard Rally (don't yet know the exact spot).  Then Hillary is flying to Louisville for a Rally at 2:00 pm at the UAW Hall at 3000 Fern Valley Road.  And, Remember Team, this is a campaign event and we're still working on "Clinton Time."  So, be ready.  With your Help and Hillary's Charge to say "Hillary Sent Me" to Help Bruce, he's finally going to get it done for all of us and Ditch Mitch so we have a Senator in Washington who will care about our interests, Bruce Lunsford.  Gather up the Gang and Bring EVERYONE to show Hillary we still love all she has stood for, and her, and what she made of us, and that we will honor her request to say "Hillary Sent Me!" for Bruce.  See you soon!  Please be sure to find just what you are needed to do for Bruce in these critical last days before the election.  Best, Olivia Anne

Here is Bruce's Press Release:  http://www.bruce2008.com/index.asp

Lunsford Campaign Welcomes Back "Kentucky's Adopted Daughter," Releases TV Ad Featuring Clinton

LOUISVILLE-Senator Hillary Clinton will return to Kentucky on Sunday, November 2, to campaign on behalf of Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Bruce Lunsford, who is locked in a neck-and-neck race against 24-year incumbent Mitch McConnell.

Clinton, who appeared on Lunsford's behalf last month at events in Pikeville and Lexington, will lead rallies in Hazard and Louisville. Times and exact locations are forthcoming.

Clinton's visit coincides with a new Lunsford TV ad released today featuring Senator Clinton's remarks from her previous visit in support of Lunsford. President Bill Clinton also visited Kentucky on Lunsford's behalf, leading rallies last week in Paducah and Bowling Green.

(Please forgive any duplications and just "delete" them.  And, let me know if you wish to be added to my "Political Pals" list for general political emails.)

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GREAT NEW LUNSFORD AD: THE HOUND-DOGS ARE ATTACKING MITCH

The hound dogs are back folks! And this time they are after the right guy.

Boswell Leading by 6 Points in New KY-02 Poll
 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a new Benenson Strategy Group poll today conducted October 20-21 that shows David Boswell leading Brett Guthrie by 6 points in the race for Kentucky 's 2nd Congressional District (47 percent to 41 percent).  The poll surveyed 401 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
 
Voters in  Kentucky's 2nd District believe that Senator Boswell "will do more to protect jobs in Kentucky

" (35 percent Boswell to 28 percent Guthrie) and more voters think Senator Boswell "will fight to protect the middle class" (35 percent Boswell to 27 percent Guthrie).  The generic Congressional ballot also shows people in the district are open to voting for a Democratic candidate (44 percent Democrat to 43 percent Republican).
 
"This poll shows that the more voters hear about Brett Guthrie's decision to ship manufacturing work to Mexico, the more they trust David Boswell to protect Kentuckyjobs" said Kyra Jennings, Southern Regional Press Secretary at the DCCC.  "While Brett Guthrie supports unfair trade deals and will turn his back on middle class Kentuckyfamilies, David Boswell will always stand by the people of Kentucky's 2nd District and stand up for their values in Congress." 

Please go to www.kentuckiansforboswell.com to contribute to help the campaign win on November 4th!

Paid for by Committee to Elect David Boswell to Congress

 

 

 

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Boswell(D) Leading by 6 Points in New KY-02 Poll

Boswell Leading by 6 Points in New KY-02 Poll
 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a new Benenson Strategy Group poll today conducted October 20-21 that shows David Boswell leading Brett Guthrie by 6 points in the race for Kentucky 's 2nd Congressional District (47 percent to 41 percent).  The poll surveyed 401 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
 
Voters in  Kentucky's 2nd District believe that Senator Boswell "will do more to protect jobs in Kentucky

" (35 percent Boswell to 28 percent Guthrie) and more voters think Senator Boswell "will fight to protect the middle class" (35 percent Boswell to 27 percent Guthrie).  The generic Congressional ballot also shows people in the district are open to voting for a Democratic candidate (44 percent Democrat to 43 percent Republican).
 
"This poll shows that the more voters hear about Brett Guthrie's decision to ship manufacturing work to Mexico, the more they trust David Boswell to protect Kentuckyjobs" said Kyra Jennings, Southern Regional Press Secretary at the DCCC.  "While Brett Guthrie supports unfair trade deals and will turn his back on middle class Kentuckyfamilies, David Boswell will always stand by the people of Kentucky's 2nd District and stand up for their values in Congress." 

Please go to www.kentuckiansforboswell.com to contribute to help the campaign win on November 4th!

Paid for by Committee to Elect David Boswell to Congress

 

 

 

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