All the indicators suggest that Barack Obama will be our next President.
1. Obama is leading in states that Kerry took in 2008 and is leading in several that Bush carried.
2. Traditional Republican states (such as Florida, Missouri, and Virginia) are too close to call.
3. Barack has reached the 50% plus level on several polls No presidential candidate has lost the election, with a 50% or more in the poll by this date.
4. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 2nd quarter of this year was less than 3%. No candidate from the Party in power has ever won an election when the GDP for the 2nd quarter was below 3%.
Below are my tentative state-by-state projections for the presidential race. I have based these projects on current poll trends.
OBAMA MCCAIN
CA 55 AL 9
CO 9 AK 3
Ct 7 AZ 10
DL 3 AR 6
DC 3 FL** 27
IL 21 GA 15
HA 4 ID 4
IA* 7 IN 11
ME 4 KS 6
MD 10 KY 8
MA 12 LA 9
MI 17 MS 6
MN 10 MT 3
MO 11 NB*** 5
NV 5 NC 15
NH 4 ND 3
NJ 15 OK 7
NM* 5 SC 8
NY 31 SD 3
OH 20 TN 11
OR 7 TX 34
PA 21 UT 5
RI 4 WVA 5
VT 3 WY 3
VA* 13
WA 11
WI 10
322 216
Bolded are states that Bush carried in 2004
**Could be an early evening if these two states go for Obama. Both are real
close.
***Electoral College votes are determined via Congressional Districts. Poll data are showing that Obama and McCain are tied in one district.