The Political Bridge

CourierJournalBluegrassPollAlsoShowsBeshearWideningHisLeadOverFletcher

TheCourierJournalBluegrassPollreleasedtodayshowsDemocratSteveBeshearis,indeed,wideninghisleadoverGovernorErnieFletcherinthefinaldaysofthecampaignforgovernor.ThepollgivesBesheara23pointleadstatewideanda2to1margininJeffersonCounty.Beshearleadsbyasubstantialmargininallareasofthestate.ThestatewidefiguresareBeshear56%andFletcher33%.TheBluegrassPollconfirmstheWHAS-TVSuveyUSApollresultsandthatBesheariswellonhiswaytoarecordwinonNov.6.

--FrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor

Danville'sTheAdvocate-Messenger'sEndorsementofDemocratSteveBeshear

EditorialEndorsement:Beshearisthepaper'schoiceforGovernor 

Today,thisnewspaperstepsalittleoutsideofwhatsomeperceiveisitscomfortzone.WeendorsetheDemocraticParty'scandidateforgovernor.

SteveBeshearisthebestchoiceinthiselection.

Wedonotapproachthisdecisionlightly.UntiltheRepublicanprimaryearlierthisyear,whenweendorsedAnneNorthup,weprofessedsteadfastandconsistentsupportforErnieFletcherinbothhiselectionstoCongressandtotheofficeofgovernor.Butthisisoneofthosetimeswhenleadership,orthelackthereof,trumpsphilosophy.

Thebestmeasureofaleaderishowhedealswithcrisis,realorpolitical,andGov.Fletcherhasdemonstratedlessleadershipthanstubbornnessinthegreatestpoliticalcrisisofhiscareer.Hisresponsetothemerithiringscandal-whichhecorrectlydescribesasa"witchhunt"butwhichalsowasatestofpoliticalacumen-andhissubsequentabandonmentofhisparty'slong-terminterestsbystayinginthisrace,havediminishedanyclaimshecanmakeofoverallsuccess.

Campaigns,andpartisanpoliticsingeneral,havebecomesofraughtwithmisinformationthatitisdifficulttodiscernthetruth.Theissuesarethesameasalways:healthcare,education,jobs.Andthepromises,too,arethesamefrombothsides:betterandmorewithrespecttoallofthosenoblecauses.

Ifyouareinpoliticaloffice,it'snothardtofindstatisticsortospininformationthatwillmakeyoulookgood,andit'snothardforyourpoliticalopponenttodothesametomakeyoulookbad.ThelatterisincrediblyeasywhenyouhaveFletcher'sproblems.

Inhiszealtoovercome,Fletcherhasfoundhimselfstoopingtodesperatetactics-callinganill-advisedspecialsessiontoadvancehisreelectionbid;flip-floppingonthecasinoissue,thenmisrepresentingBeshear'spositiononthatissue;diggingupdirtabouttheKentuckyCentralcaseandpouringwateronittomakemud;questioninghisopponent'sreligiousconvictions.

Fletcherhasattemptedtoframethisracearoundthecasinoproposal,anissuenotyetontheballotandonewhichthevoterswouldbeabletorejectaseasilyastheycanrejectFletcher.

Thatsaid,BeshearhasappropriatelyandinfairnesspointedtoFletcher'sindictmentandhisprematureuseofthepardonforstaffmembersasreasonsenoughnottoreelecthim.Hehasappropriatelydescribedthisraceasoneaboutleadership.

AndBeshearhasprovenhisabilitytolead.Heservedthisstateadmirablyasstaterepresentative(1974-79),attorneygeneral(1980-84)andaslieutenantgovernorunderMarthaLayneCollins(1983-87).Asattorneygeneralheattackedtheissueoffoodstampfraudandenabledconsumersseekingjustice.Aslieutenantgovernor,heformedtheKentuckyTomorrowCommission,agroupthatsoughttogetaheadofourproblems.

Beshearbravelytookupacontroversialissueinthiscampaignfromthestart.Hestoodhisground,andinafracturedfieldofprimarycandidates-whicheveryonethoughtwouldproducearunoffelection-Beshearmanagedtobringhispartytogetherandwinconvincingly.

Underthecircumstances,webelieveBeshearisinthebestpositiontoprovidetheleadershipneededtoadvancethecausesinKentuckythatarerepeatedinelectionafterelection.

WhenandiftheRepublicanPartyhealsitswounds,maybewecanreturntoadebateofpoliticalphilosophy.

Butfornow,weneedadifferentleader.SteveBeshearisattheready.

--TheAdvocate-MessengerEditorialEndorsement;courtesyofFrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor

NewSurveyUSAPollShowsBeshearWillWinBIGTIME!!!!

ItappearsthatDemocratSteveBeshearis,indeed,wellonhiswaytoarecordlandslidewininTuesday'sGeneralElectionforGovernor.ThenewWHAS-TVSurveyUSAPollshowsthattheBeshear-Mongiardotickethasgreatmomemtuminthefinaldaysofthecampaignastheirmarginwidens. Therecordmarginof67%,aspredictedhereoveraweekago,isattainableifnotprobable. SeebelowforMarkHebert'sofWHAS-TVreportonthenewpoll.TheBeshearbandwagonisrollingbigtimetowardsthatbigwinnextweek.Bye,byeErnie.Hello,GovernorBeshear.

--FrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor 

Beshear'sLeadWidens-WHAS-TVSurveyUSAPollShows

MarkHebertofWHAS-TVreports:SteveBeshearhaswidenedhisleadoverErnieFletcherandappearsheadedtowardadoubledigitwinintheKentuckygovernor'srace.

ConfessionsofaMortageBroker:OnePerspectiveontheImpendingHousingMeltdown

Ashomepricescontinuetoslideandweareinthemidstofrecordforeclosures,asPamelaLeaveynotedinTheDemocraticDailyafewdaysago,Iwantedtosharewithreadersmyperspectiveoftheimpendinghousingmeltdown.

Ifirstbegansellingmortgagesin1993.AtthattimetheriskiestmortgageavailablewasaloantopersonsinaChapter13bankruptcy,andthisformoffinancingtookplaceunderstandardFHAguidelines.InsomewaysIcouldhonestlysaythatIhaveneverseen,onbalance,ariskierlendingscenariothanmakingmortgagestopersonsinCh.13,andthatisoneloanthatnosubprimelenderIeversawwaswillingtomake.Ithrowthisinonlyforperspective.

In1998LehmanBrothersstartedtooffersomeloanproductsthattheindustryconsideredtobeunprecedented.Atthattimeallofthenewproductsrequireddownpayment/equityandallwereavailableonlytopersonswithwhatisconsideredtobe“A”credit.Wherethedeparturecamefromisthatdownpaymentrequirementswereloosenedatthesametimethatoptionsweremadeavailabletoqualifywithouthavingtodocumentincomeorassets.Therewasevenoneflavorthatpermittedaloanapplicationthatmadenomentionofemploymentor,reallyanythingbeyondidentifyinginformation,andtheratesforthisentiregroupofnicheloanswerenotmuchhigherthanforconventionalloans.

TheFHA,conventional,andLehmanBrothersmortgagesweremostly30yearfixed,andanythingelsewasanexception.Thereweresubprimeloansavailableasfarbackas1993,andtheyweretypicallydesignedtohaveapaymentsetfortwoorthreeyearsbeforechanging.Theseloansalsohadprepaymentpenaltiesimposedforbeingrepaidquickly,andthesepenaltieswereveryrareotherwise.Rateswerehigh,whichmadethemnotapopularoption,butthemainthingrestrictingusewasdownpayment/equityrequirementsofatleast20%.Howeverafewpeoplehadbothbadcreditandequitysothesubprimesegmenttechnicallydidexist.

FHAalwayshadextremelylowdownpaymentrequirements,andwaystobasicallygetaroundeventhose.InadditionFHAtookmoreofasecondchanceapproachtopeople,andworkedwithcreditpicturesthatweresubstantiallylowerthanstandardAcreditgrade.Inthatsense,FHAshowedtheway.Ontheotherhand,FHAhasalwaysbeenconservativeinareasofhousingconditionandvaluation,incomedocumentation,andemploymenttrackrecord.

The“AltA”lendingarea(Lehmanandfollowers),meanwhilewasenjoyingsuccessworkingwithborrowerswhoweresubstantiallyunderservedandstartedliberalizingguidelinesinseveralrespects.Creditratingwasloweredalittlebit(“Aminus”),andrateswereincreasedtopayfortheadditionalrisk.Likewisewithdownpaymentrequirements,atleasttosomeextentbecauseFHAhadbrokensomegroundintheareaofnocashoutofpocketfromtheborrower.Themajordeparture,though,wasforfolksbuyingrentalproperties,but,again,thisareawasliberalizedonlyforborrowersshowingexcellentcredithistory.

Inthissametimeperiod(1998to2002)softwarewasintroducedbybothFannieMaeandFreddieMac(quasigovernmentalentitiesthatactasintermediariesbetweenmortgagecompaniesandWallStreet)that“underwrites”loanfiles.Theyalsostartedtoutilizedatabasesofrealestateconditionandvalueinformation.Withinthispackageofinnovationsloanswereapprovedwithoutappraisalsbeingrequired,andborrowersreceivedlowornodownpaymentloansatstandardrateswithouthavingtoprovideemploymentorassetdocumentation.Softwarewasdesignedtomakethesethingshappenlargelybecausetheareaof“creditscoring”finallybecameaccepted.Significantly,thisbodyofloansdoesnotseemtohaveissueswithrepayment.

Attheheightof“subprimemania”,then,peoplewithbadcreditweregivenloanswithouthavingtoproveincome(andsometimesemployment),withouthavingtopaydownpaymentsorclosingcosts,and,insomecases,withoutevenhavingapropertylookedatbyanappraiser,andevenatastonishinglylowcreditscores.These,however,werebadloans,meaninghigherrates(thoughstillscaledtocreditgrade),paymentincreaseattwoorthreeyears,andsubstantialpenaltiesforrepayingtoosoon.Roomwasevenfoundwithinthisgeneralframeworkforpeoplebuying“investment”property.Andthewaythatthemortgageindustrygottothispointwasbygradualevolution,oneguidelinemodificationatatime.

Fromtheperspectiveoftheloanofficer,thesedealswerereallytwofers.Sure,theratesweregoingtoskyrocketbutnooneinvolvedbelievethatanyonewouldeverhavetofacemakingpaymentsatthoserates.Theborrowerswouldcleantheircredit,seasontheiremployment,haveatrackrecordonthatnewlyopenedcompany,and/oranyofanumberofotherthingsthatwouldallowthemtoqualifyforthegoldstandardofmortgages,aconventionalloan.Or,barringthat(becauseborrowersarehuman,afterall)thefolkswouldcomebackinintwoyearsandwe’dresetthemwithanewsubprime,therebykeepingpaymentsdowninthecomfortzone,andeveryonewouldbehappyandprosperous.

Asthenumbersofunqualifiedborrowersstartedtomount,sodidthedefaults.Defaultsflowtoforeclosuresandforeclosurestolosses,andlossestoacutoffoffreshmoneytosubprimelenders,andthemoneycutofftomoreforeclosuresbecausethelendingcycleendsandthepiperfinallymustbepaidfulldue.

Andintheend,there’sstillthecurrenteconomytoaddintothemix.

--DarrellProws,TheDemocraticDaily;courtesyofFrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor

ExtendFamilyandMedicalLeave

Recently,SenatorHillaryClintonunveiledherproposaltohelpparentsbalanceworkandfamilythoughanexpansionoftheFamilyMedicalLeaveAct(FMLA)tocoveranadditional13millionworkersandguaranteeatleast7paidsickdaysperyearforeveryworker.

15yearsago,naysayersarguethatfamilyandmedicalleavewouldplacetheentireU.S.economyatacompetitivedisadvantage.Mostemployers,however,foundthattheoriginalFamilyandMedicalLeavelawpassedin1993hasturnedouttobeapro-businesspolicy.AFamiliesandWorkInstitutestudyconductedfiveyearsafterthefederallawwentintoeffectfoundthat84percentofemployersconcludedthatthebenefitsofprovidingfamilyandmedicalleaveoffsetoroutweighedthecosts.Infact,manybusinessesnotedreducedemployeeturnover,enhancedproductivity,andimprovedmorale.

SenatorClinton’sproposalsincludemanyofthesameideasoutlinedintworecentpaperspublishedbytheDLCandPPI-MicheleStockwell’s[1]HelpingMothersSucceed.Clinton’sagendacallsforexpandingtheFMLAtocoveremployerswith25workers(thecurrentlawcoversemployerswith50ormoreworkers);makingthefederalgovernmentapaidfamilyleavemodel;guaranteeingallworkersaccesstosickdays;empoweringworkerstorequestworkplaceflexibilitylikechangingtheirhoursortelecommuting;improvingaccesstohighqualitychildcareby,amongotherthings,promotingqualityratingsystemscurrentlyinplaceinseveralstates;andgivingeveryparentarealchoiceaboutwhethertostayhomeandcarefortheirchildrenfulltimeorworkoutsidethehome.

OneofthekeyprovisionsinSenatorClinton’sagendaisherproposalforaStateFamilyLeaveInnovationFund,whichwouldcommit$1billiontosupportstatelevelparentalleaveprogramsthroughcompetitivematchinggrantstohelpcoverstart-upcostsandprogramexpenditures.Thefundwillnotdictatewhatapproacheachstatewouldtake,butwillsupportvariousapproachestoprovidingleave.

StateshavebegunexperimentingwithavarietyofapproachestoexpandontheFMLA.Infact,twostates-CaliforniaandWashington-havealreadypassedpaidfamilyleavelaws.Butstateeffortsneedtobeexpandedtohelpimproveleaveforworkingfamilies,andClinton’sproposedfundwillhelpjumpstarttheinnovationinthestates.Asstatesbeginexperimenting,theywouldbewisetolookatstateslikeCaliforniaandWashingtonasmodelsforprogress.

In2002,then-CaliforniaGov.GrayDavisandthestatelegislaturetookintoaccountboththehighcostsworkersfacetosupportafamilyandthemarketcompetitionthatbusinessownersfaceandcraftedanemployee-financedfamilyleavesystem.Thispro-family,pro-businesslawestablishedtheFamilyTemporaryDisabilityInsurance(FTDI)system,whichusesthestate’scurrentdisabilityinsurancesystemtoexpandpaidcoveragetoworkers,mostofwhomwillreceiveabout55percentoftheirsalaryforsixweeksofleave.Overall,paidfamilyandmedicalleavehasenhancedthequalityoffamilyandworklifeforallCalifornians.

Thisyear,Washingtonbecamethesecondstatetoenactpaidfamilyleavelegislation.ThisnewinsuranceprogramisslatedtobegininOctober2009andwilloffernewparentsupto5weeksofleavetimeperyear.Individualswhowork35hoursperweekormorewillreceiveaweeklybenefitof$250duringtheirleavetime.Thosewhoworklesswillreceiveaproratedbenefit.

WhileCaliforniaandWashingtonhavetakenthemostsignificantstridesonfamilyandmedicalleave,severalotherstateshavepassedkeyprovisionsthatstatesshouldconsider.Minnesota’sFamilyandMedicalLeavelawallowsanemployeetousetheirpersonalsickleavebenefitstoattendtoachildforareasonableamountoftime.Inaddition,Minnesotarequiresallpublicemployersandprivateemployerswith21ormoreemployeestograntanemployeeleaveofuptoatotalof16hourseachyeartoattendschoolconferencesorschool-relatedactivitiesoftheirchildren.Bothoftheseprovisionsgiveparentstheabilitytobalancetwocriticalrolesintheirlivesandsucceedasbothparentsandemployees.

Somestateshavedecidedtotargettheirfamilyleavepolicytothecriticalfirstyearofachild’slife.Atleastthreestates(Minnesota,Montana,andNewMexico)haveexperimentedwithAt-HomeInfantCare(AHIC)programsprovidepartialwagereplacementtolow-income,workingparentswhochoosetohaveoneparentstayhomeforthefirstyearofachild’slife.Theseprogramsaretypicallylimitedtoemployedparentsandhavetimelimits,generallybetween12and24monthsduringthelifetimeoftherecipient.

Aspolicymakersinmanyotherstatesconsidersimilarlegislation,theywouldbewisetoanalyzeCalifornia’sfairandfiscallyresponsiblemodelforprovidingworkersthetoolstheyneedtoexcelasworkersandfamilycaregivers.AndSenatorClinton’sproposalforaStateFamilyLeaveInnovationFundwillassiststatesinmakingimportantprogressinthisarea.

--JasonNewman,DLCIdeasPrimary;courtesyofFrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor

MukaseyCallsWaterboarding‘Hypothetical,’DodgesLegalQuestionOfWhetherItIsTorture

InawrittenresponsetoquestionsfromSenateDemocratsyesterday,AttorneyGeneralnomineeMichaelMukaseyrefusedtoexplicitlysaywhetherhebelievedwaterboardingtobetorture.Inthefour-pageletter,Mukaseycalledtheinterrogationtechnique“overtheline”and“repugnant”on“apersonalbasis,”butaddedthathewouldneedthe“actualfactsandcircumstances”tostrikea“legalopinion”:

Hypotheticalsaredifferentfromreallifeandinanylegalopiniontheactualfactsandcircumstancesarecritical.

CNN’sEdHenrynotesthatwithhis“factsandcircumstances”hedge,“essentiallyMichaelMukaseyisdodgingthequestionofwhetherlegallywaterboardingistorture.

SenateDemocratshavesaidthatMukasey’sansweronthequestionofwaterboardingandtortureiscrucialtotheirvoteonhisconfirmation.“It’sfairtosaymyvotewoulddependonhimansweringthatquestion,”JudiciaryCommitteeChairmanPatrickLeahy(D-VT)toldreporterslastweek.Sen.DickDurbin(D-IL)calledit“theseminalissue.”

Sen.LindseyGraham(R-SC),ajudgeadvocategeneralinthemilitary,hassaidthatitshouldn’tbedifficultforMukaseytobeclearontheissue:

Ifhedoesnotbelievethatwaterboardingisillegal,thenthatwouldreallyputdoubtsinmyownmindbecauseIdon’tthinkyouhavetohavealotofknowledgeaboutthelawtounderstandthistechniqueviolates”theGenevaConventionandotherstatutes.

TimereportedyesterdaythatifMukasey“refusestodeclarewaterboardingexpresslyillegal,helookslikelytoberejectedbytheJudiciaryCommittee.”

--ThinkProgress;courtesyofFrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor

FormerEmployeeIdentifiesVotingRightsHeadAs‘BothTheCauseAndEffect’OfDoJPoliticization

Yesterday,theJusticeDepartment’scontroversialVotingRightssectionchiefJohnTannertestifiedtotheHouseSubcommitteeonCivilRights.Heofferedananemicapologyforhiscommentsthatminorities“diefirst”beforebecomingelderly,andarethereforenotasaffectedbyvoterIDlaws.Hesaidthecomments“donotinanywayaccuratelyreflectmycareerofdevotiontoenforcingfederallawsdesignedtoassurefairandequalaccesstotheballot.”

YetafterTanner’stestimony,TobyMoore,aformerVotingRightssectionemployee,testifiedthatTanner’sremarks“areafairexampleofTanner’sapproachtofacts,thetruth,andthelaw.”MoorealsosaidthatTanner“isboththecauseandtheeffectofthepoliticizingoftheCivilRightsDivision”andthatthevotingrightssectionwas“awoundedinstitution”:

JohnTannerisboththecauseandtheeffectofthepoliticizingoftheCivilRightsDivision,andshouldnotbeallowedtohidebehindacareerstatuswhichhehasabjuredbyhisactions.

Untilsomeoneinthedepartment,inthisadministrationorthenext,admitstothemistakesofthepastseveralyearsandrestorescredibleleadership,thevotingsectionoftheCivilRightsDivisionwillremainawoundedinstitution.HowlongwilltheDepartmentofJusticetoleratechronicmismanagementsimplytosaveface?

OneofTanner’smostcontroversialactsasVotingRightschiefsurroundedhisapprovalofa2005Georgialawrequiringvoterstoshowphotoidentificationtovote,alawafederaljudgecomparedtoaJimCrow-erapolltax.TodayMoorecalledita“discriminatoryand“nastypieceoflegislation”thatincluded“draconianrestrictions.”

UndertheBushadministration,theCivilRightsdivision,ofwhichtheVotingRightssectionisapart,hasundergone“aseachange,”shiftingfromitstraditionalfocusofprotectingminorityvotingrightstobringingcasesallegingreversediscriminationagainstwhites.Thesection“hasnotablyshirkeditslegalresponsibilitytoprotectvotingrights,”formerVotingRightssectionheadJosephRichwrotelastMarch.

--ThinkProgress;courtesyofFrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor

McConnellKnowsHe'sVulnerable:BuysEarlyPoliticalSpots

 

FromBill'sPoliticalBaghttp://www.wkyt.com/politicalblog/

Justassoonasthegovernor’sraceisinthebooks…U.S.SenatorMitchMcConnell’sTVre-electioncampaignissettobegin. RecordsthatarerequiredtobemadepublicshowMcConnellhasboughttelevisiontimeinhighprofileprogrammingstartinginNovember.

   McConnellisbuyingadsaroundUKbasketballgamesandotherhighprofileWildcatathleticevents.

   McConnell,whohastoldsupportersinfundraisinglettersthatheexpectsastrongchallengenextyear,isgoingbacktohisroots.  WhenMcConnellfirstranforthesenatein1984,hestartedveryearly.  McConnelltoldusrecentlythathehopestoraise$10millionbytheendoftheyearandwillspendmostofthatontelevisionads.  TheearlystrategyisnodoubtintendedtoshowanyDemocrathewillrunavigorousracenextyear. ItmayalsodemonstratetoanypotentialprimaryfoethatMcConnell’sresourcesaredeep. 

   Thecontentoftheearlyadsisn’tknownyet…butit’sclearthatMcConnellisdeterminedtohighlighttheprestigeofhispositionasRepublicanSenateLeaderduringthecourseofthecampaign.

  

IndianaDemocraticLeadersEndorseClinton

TheClintonCampaigntodayannouncedtheendorsementsofIndianaDemocraticPartyChairmanDanParkerand16otherleadingpartyofficials.

“Indianaisreadyforchange,andHillaryClintonhasthestrengthandexperiencetodeliverit,”Parkersaid.

“Hillaryisuniquelyqualifiedtohitthegroundrunningonherfirstdayinofficeandbegintacklingthechallengeswefaceathomeandabroad,”saidDemocraticNationalCommitteeMemberPhoebeCrane.

“Hillary’simpressiverecordofworkingacrosstheaisletogetthingsdoneisthekindofconsensus-buildingleadershipweneedtoprovidequality,affordablehealthcareforeveryAmericanandmoveournationtowardsenergyindependence,”saidDemocraticNationalCommitteeMemberBobPastrick.

“IamgratefulfortheoverwhelmingsupportI’vereceivedinIndiana,”Clintonsaid.“Withthehelpoftheselocalleaders,we’lltakeourmessageofchangeacrossthestateandthisnation.”

INDIANADEMOCRATICPARTYLEADERSENDORSINGHILLARYTODAY:

• DanParker,Chairman,IndianaDemocraticParty
• PhoebeCrane,DNCMember
• BobPastrick,DNCMember
• DoraMayAbel,IndianaDemocraticPartyDeputyChair
• LindaBuzinec,IndianaDemocraticPartyTreasurer
• ButchMorgan,2ndDistrictChair
• MichelleLivinghouse,2ndDistrictViceChair
• SteveHaines,3rdDistrictChair
• MarjorieWarnick,3rdDistrictViceChair
• JeffFites,4thDistrictChair
• J.D.Lux,5thDistrictChair
• JanEllis,5thDistrictViceChair
• TomO’Donnell,7thDistrictViceChair
• AnthonyLong,8thDistrictChair
• MaryLouTerrell,8thDistrictViceChair
• KevinMurray,IndianaDemocraticPartyParliamentarian
• MartyTitsworthChandler,IndianaDemocraticPartyLegalCounsel

--HillaryClintonforPresidentCampaign;courtesyofFrankLeidermann,AssociateEditor