Today (December 8, 2009), there is a very important special election in Kentucky’s 14thSenate District.
With a Democratic win, the State Senate will be composed of 19 Republicans, 17 Democrats, and 1 Independent (who votes with the Republican caucus).
This win (coupled with Marty Myer beating Dan Seum and Leper losing in Paducah) will enable Democrats to control the State Senate in 2011. A Marty Myer win and a Leper loss is entirely possible.
Democratic control of the State Senate is especially important for the 2011-2012 sessions. During that legislative cycle, the Kentucky General Assembly will redistrict Kentucky legislative and U.S. Congressional districts. The General Assembly redistricts (by law) legislative and congressional seats after each decennial U.S. Census count.
A Democratic win would mean that the Kentucky Democratic Party, with a big assistance from organized labor, would have won three special elections in the last two years. Who says that Kentucky is a Red state?
A Democratic win would provide a big boost to the proponents of expanded gaming. The horsey folk have put much money into this election on behalf of the Democrat, Jodie Haydon.
A Democratic win would be a real kick in the u-know-what to Senate President David Williams. He is, I have been told, a rallying point for the Democrats in the District. They see Mr. Williams as the Mitch McConnell of the Kentucky State Senate—The Great Obstructer of Progress.
A Republican win would be a victory for the traditional values folks. It would be a defeat for women (who believe in choice). It could be a devastating blow to the Beshear administration and to the Kentucky Democratic Party’s fortunes in this great commonwealth.
You now want to know what will happen in this election.
I will tell you that now.
JH will win the special election, because the candidates for this race are Jodie Haydon (D) and Jimmy Higdon(R)
Jodie Haydon, will win because he has much more money and better organizing than is Jimmy Higdon.
Jimmy Higdon will win because the district favors him. The 14thState Senate District is mainly conservative, Baptist and rural. Jimmy Higdon is a well known and liked State Legislator and owner of grocery stores.
Jodie Haydon is a well know and liked former public official in Bardstown and Nelson County, which has a sizable Catholic population.
Jimmy Higdon will win if Jodie Haydon cannot win Nelson County by more than 1500 votes. That is what I have been told.
I have also been told that the internal polling for each Party has its candidate up by a few points.
No one can then predict what the outcome of this special election will be.
One can predict that its outcome will most likely impact the Kentucky political scene for years to come.