The Political Bridge

KENTUCKY 2010 U.S. SENATE WATCH: CONWAY CAMPAIGN ASSERTS THAT THE PUBLIC POLICY POLLING DATA SERIOUSLY UNDERCUT THE MONGIARDO POLLING CLAIMS

(Attorney-General Jack Conway and LT Gov Dr. Daniel Mongiardo are vying for the Democratic nomination for the 2010 general election to be a U.S. Senator from Kentucky.)

From Mark Riddle of the Conway campaign:

Note: In case you did not see the independent polling outfit Public Policy Polling released a memo yesterday and made some strong points that seriously undercut Mongiardo’s polling claims. As I stated before 336 interviews - a sub sample - is not considered a credible sample size for a statewide election survey. I still challenge reporters to get a copy of the questionnaire.

Public Policy Polling 
Friday, May 29, 2009

Looking at the Kentucky Poll Dispute

Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo are fighting over a new poll from Mongiardo's campaign that shows him with a 43-28 lead in their probable primary face off.

We polled in Kentucky last month, and although we didn't look at the primary match up we can break this down a little based on the data we did get.

Conway and Mongiardo have almost equal favorables among Democratic voters- 58% have a positive opinion of the Lieutenant Governor and 57% have one of the Attorney General. Mongiardo's negatives are slightly higher within the party at 18%, compared to 10% for Conway.

Although it's possible that primary voters like both Mongiardo and Conway but like Mongiardo a lot more, as the internal poll would suggest, it would nevertheless be unusual for a candidate to hold such a large lead against an opponent with the same level of favorables.

Where there's a bigger difference in voter perceptions about Mongiardo and Conway is among non-Democratic voters. While Mongiardo and Conway are basically equally popular among Democrats, Mongiardo gets much worse reviews from Republicans and independents. For instance both candidates are viewed positively by 35% of independents, but 48% have a negative opinion of Mongiardo compared to just 28% for Conway. It's a similar story with Republicans- slightly more- 21% have a favorable opinion of Mongiardo than the 19% who have one of Conway. But when it comes to levels of unfavorability with GOP voters Mongiardo is at 49% and Conway is at 34%.

How much does any of this mean? Probably not much with about a year to go until the primary.

Source: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/05/looking-at-kentucky-poll-dispute.html

The April 2, 2009 poll, conducted by the Public Policy Polling, shows that Attorney General Jack Conway is the only announced Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Kentucky to best all three potential Republican candidates.

The head-to-head results are:

    * Bunning 33% … Conway 42% …  

    * Bunning 36% … Mongiardo 43%  

    * Williams 29% … Conway 43% …    

    * Williams 32% … Mongiardo 43% …
     * Grayson 33% … Conway 37% … 
    * Grayson 40% … Mongiardo 36% …

ECONOMIC FORECASTERS HAVE PROJECTED A $996 MILLION SHORTFALL FOR KENTUCKY IN THE FISCAL YEAR 2010

By Stephenie Steitzer of the Louisville Courier-Journal• May 29, 2009

FRANKFORT, Ky. — The state’s economic forecasters this afternoon projected a $996 million shortfall for next fiscal year, which begins July 1.

The shortage likely means more spending cuts and a possible attempt to legalize slot machines at race tracks to raise revenue for the state.

Gov. Steve Beshear issued a statement this afternoon announcing that he plans to call a special session June 15 to pass a new budget. He said specifics on the session won't be released until next week

SONIA SOTAMAYOR IS THE JUDGE WHO SAVED BASEBALL

From Sotomayor is a Sporting Judge
By Dave Zirin

 

"In 1995, Judge Sotamayor ruled against the owners of Major League Baseball, quashing the lockout that infamously canceled the last one-third of the 1994 baseball season, including the World Series. Depression and two world wars couldn't cancel the series, but a particularly seething group of billionaires was ready to do just that... The bosses were ready to destroy the game in order to save it, fielding replacement players...  Judge Sotomayor stepped in; put the owners on ice and the game back on the field."

THE JUNE 15TH SPECIAL SESSION OF THE KENTUCKY GENERAL ASSEMBLY WILL INCLUDE A MEASURE CALLING FOR EXPANDED GAMING AT HORSERACE TRACKS

Dear Kentucky Roll Call reader,

This follows the message I sent just a few minutes ago saying that Gov. Beshear will call a special session of the legislature, to begin June 15 ...and "video terminals (slots) at racetracks will not be on the call, according to a reliable source."

I received a reply immediately after that transmission, and considering that the reply was from such a trusted source over the years, who happens to be very close to the gaming issue, I feel it worthy of passing on to you the reply in its entirety: "[The] Gov plans to amend the call with gaming."

##

Lowell Reese
Editor & Publisher
PO Box 1233
Frankfort KY 40602
(502) 875-7745
reese@kentuckyrollcall.com

AN UPDATE ON THE 2010 US SENATE RACE IN KENTUCKY: PUBLIC POLICY POLLING LOOKS AT THE KENTUCKY POLL DISPUTE

(Background: A recent campaign poll from the LT. Governor Dr. Dan Mongiardo campaign shows the Doctor leading Attorney-General Jack Conway by a 43-28 margin...This posted result lead to squabbling between the Lt Governor's and the Attorney-General's campaign staff about whom is the better candidate  Mark Riddle of the Conway team claimed that an April survey by Public Policy Polling showed Conway to be the better candidate. Below is Public Policy Polling's response to that claim.

"We polled in Kentucky last month, and although we didn't look at the primary match up we can break this down a little based on the data we did get.

Conway and Mongiardo have almost equal favorables among Democratic voters- 58% have a positive opinion of the Lieutenant Governor and 57% have one of the Attorney General. Mongiardo's negatives are slightly higher within the party at 18%, compared to 10% for Conway."

 

GALLUP POLL SHOWS THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING FOR HIS FIRST 100 DAYS IS THE MEDIAN FOR THE LAST SIX PRESIDENTS

 

 

Half of the Presidents have higher approval ratings; half have lower…

 

PRINCETON, NJ -- So far in May, Barack Obama has averaged 65% job approval. Since World War II, only three of the previous eight presidents elected to their first terms -- Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan -- have had a higher average approval rating in May of their first year. Obama's average exceeds those of the three most recent presidents -- George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush.

A CASE PENDING IN JUDGE SOTOMAYOR'S COURT THAT THE WHITE HOUSE WILL PROBABLY NOT PUBLICIZE

 (source: Politico.com)

An appellate panel led by Judge Sotomayor has been sitting on a major climate change lawsuit for three years.

“Connecticut v. American Electric Power Co.(AEP)is one of three major climate change suits pending in the circuit courts of appeals -- In AEP, the district court rejected public nuisance claims brought by the state attorneys general against the power companies because of their greenhouse gas emissions.   The case was docketed with the circuit court in September 2005; briefing was completed in March 2006, and argument was held June 7, 2006. "(citation: L.A. Law.Com).

 

The second Circuit Court asked for additional briefings, which the lawyers for the contestants filed in July 2007.

JUDGE SOTOMAYOR’S RECORD INDICATES STRONG SUPPORT FOR CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM

"Judge Sotomayor has staked a position that could have far-reaching political consequences. The clarity of her support for limits on campaign fundraising and her background as a pioneering campaign regulator is raising eyebrows among election law experts who say her record is more substantial and explicit than that of any Supreme Court nominee since the dawn of the modern, post-Watergate campaign finance regime."  (Source: Politico.Com)

 

Senator Mitch McConnell has led (somewhat successfully) the fight against campaign finance laws.  He had a victory of sorts when the Supreme Court overturned portions of the McCain-Feingold Election Reform Act of 2002.  Senator McConnell has claimed that campaign finance reform violates First Amendment rights of free speech.

EXAMPLES OF CASES IN WHICH THE U.S. SUPREME COURT REVERSED DECISIONS OF THE U.S. COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE 2ND CIRCUIT(JUDGE SOMOTOMAYOR'S CURRENT COURT)

 

Factcheck.com noted three examples of he U.S. Supreme Court reversing the decisions of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2^nd Circuit.  They are:

 

CORRECTIONAL SERVICES CORPORATION V. MALESKO

Judge Sotomayor said that an inmate could sue a private contractor for injuries that he received in a halfway house.

 

ENTERGY V. RIVERKEEPER

Judge Sotomayor claimed, “that under the Clean Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency could not use a cost-benefit analysis to determine the best technology available for drawing cooling water into power plants with minimal impact on aquatic life.”

 

MERRILL LYNCH, PIERCE, FENNER & SMITH, INC. V. DABIT

Judge Sotomayor wrote the Second Circuit Court’s opinion that the 1996 Securities…Act did not preempted a class action suit filed in state court against Merrill Lynch.

FACTCHECKING CLAIMS THAT JUDGE SONIA SOTOMAYOR IS A POOR JURIST

From FactCheck.com

"Of the majority opinions that Judge Sonia Sotomayor has authored since becoming an appellate judge in 1998, three of them have been overturned by the Supreme Court.

Our search for appellate opinions by Sotomayor on the LexisNexis database returned 232 cases. That's a reversal rate of 1.3 percent.

But only five of her decisions have been reviewed by the justices. Using five as a denominator, the rate comes out to 60 percent(which is low, according FactCheck.com)."