(Attorney-General Jack Conway and LT Gov Dr. Daniel Mongiardo are vying for the Democratic nomination for the 2010 general election to be a U.S. Senator from Kentucky.)
From Mark Riddle of the Conway campaign:
Note: In case you did not see the independent polling outfit Public Policy Polling released a memo yesterday and made some strong points that seriously undercut Mongiardo’s polling claims. As I stated before 336 interviews - a sub sample - is not considered a credible sample size for a statewide election survey. I still challenge reporters to get a copy of the questionnaire.
Public Policy Polling
Friday, May 29, 2009
Looking at the Kentucky Poll Dispute
Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo are fighting over a new poll from Mongiardo's campaign that shows him with a 43-28 lead in their probable primary face off.
We polled in Kentucky last month, and although we didn't look at the primary match up we can break this down a little based on the data we did get.
Conway and Mongiardo have almost equal favorables among Democratic voters- 58% have a positive opinion of the Lieutenant Governor and 57% have one of the Attorney General. Mongiardo's negatives are slightly higher within the party at 18%, compared to 10% for Conway.
Although it's possible that primary voters like both Mongiardo and Conway but like Mongiardo a lot more, as the internal poll would suggest, it would nevertheless be unusual for a candidate to hold such a large lead against an opponent with the same level of favorables.
Where there's a bigger difference in voter perceptions about Mongiardo and Conway is among non-Democratic voters. While Mongiardo and Conway are basically equally popular among Democrats, Mongiardo gets much worse reviews from Republicans and independents. For instance both candidates are viewed positively by 35% of independents, but 48% have a negative opinion of Mongiardo compared to just 28% for Conway. It's a similar story with Republicans- slightly more- 21% have a favorable opinion of Mongiardo than the 19% who have one of Conway. But when it comes to levels of unfavorability with GOP voters Mongiardo is at 49% and Conway is at 34%.
How much does any of this mean? Probably not much with about a year to go until the primary.
The April 2, 2009 poll, conducted by the Public Policy Polling, shows that Attorney General Jack Conway is the only announced Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Kentucky to best all three potential Republican candidates.
The head-to-head results are:
* Bunning 33% … Conway 42% …
* Bunning 36% … Mongiardo 43%
* Williams 29% … Conway 43% …
* Williams 32% … Mongiardo 43% …
* Grayson 33% … Conway 37% …
* Grayson 40% … Mongiardo 36% …