Every political junkie thinks that s/he is an expert. Every political junkie thinks that s /she can do better than those running the party and campaign, especially when the party or campaign loses.
Put me in both of those categories.
I was outraged by losses in the State Senate race in Kentucky. I told my friends that I could have helped win those races, blah, blah, blah.
Then my wife said: Big guy, you’re the educational/psychological research dude. Show me the data.
I retorted: The data are pure and simple. The Democratic Party did poorer in Kentucky than most other states. Democrats lost 3 out of 3 hotly contested State Senate races, lost a hotly competitive U.S. Senate race, and only picked one State House seat.” This was a big Democratic year, elsewhere.
My wife snapped back: You always preach in your classes (after all, I read all your class handouts) that data are never pure and simple!” “Dig some more before opening your mouth about Jennifer Moore and the Kentucky Democratic Party. They did just fine.
I sighed and said: I will dig further into election2008 and report my findings. It will be fun.
After going through the Kentucky Secretary of State’s election, data and information that the Kentucky Democratic Party generously gave me (click here for that data), I reported to my wife.
Me: Once again, wifey dear, I must say that you are almost always right. The party did better in 8/10 State Senate races than was projected by the NCEC .
Wifey: You may have told me before, but I forgot your political jargon s-t! What is the NCEC?
Me: A private organization formed by Eleanor Roosevelt...
Wifey: Love that woman!
Me: Let me finish! You never let me finish. It’s called the National Committee for an Effective Congress. This organization helps progressive candidates and grassroots activists to win elections…
Wifey: You’re making another one of your speeches! Get on with it.
Me: Its…
Wife: It’s?
Me: The NCEC projections for Kathy Groob, Denise Harper Angel, and Steve Newberry were low by more than 10%.
Wifey: Way to go, Denise and Kathy!
Me: Don’t leave, there are much more data.
Wifey: I’m not leaving...Need to go to the next room to do the dishes, which you never do. I’m listening.
Me: Kentucky Democrats outperformed 10 of the 18 Red states that had state legislative races in 2008. Dems in KY gained one seat while they lost six seats in Tennessee.
Are you listening?
Wifey: I am! Kentucky is better than Tennessee.
Me: The losing Democratic candidates in the State Senate races way outperformed the rest of the Democratic ticket in that area. Kathy Groob lost in the 23rd Senate District (Kenton County) by 2% while Obama lost that County by nearly 21% and Lunsford by nearly 25%.
Moreover, furthermore, and all that, the Republican candidates for federal office won big in the counties in the Newberry race. These counties were Allen, Barren, Edmonson, Green, Metcalfe, and Simpson.
Newberg won two of those counties, Barren and Simpson counties. In fact, he won Barren County (Glasgow) by a substantial margin (around nine percent).
WITH THAT WATER RUNNING, DID YOU HEAR ANYTHING I SAID! $&%^^!
Wifey: Yea, I did. I heard it all.
Me: WHAT DID I SAY!
Wifey: That the Kentucky Democratic did quite well in 2008. It outperformed most other Red States…And Democratic candidates for State Senate in KY outperformed their rest of the ticket... Anything else, dear
