ByRalfFuecks,DLCIdeasPrimary:
ShortlyaftertheNationalIntelligenceCouncilreleasedtheirreport,“Iran:NuclearIntentionsandCapabilities”lastDecember,asighofreliefpassedoverEurope:withtheappraisalthatthecountryhadfrozenitsnuclearweaponsprogramattheendof2003,theoptionofaUnitedStatesmilitarystrikeagainstIranduringtheremainderofPresidentBush’sterminofficeseemednolongeranissue.OnecanreadthereportasasortofpreemptivestrikeagainstthehawksintheBushadministration,onewhichwoulddenythemanyformoflegitimizationforarenewedpoliticalandmilitaryadventure-revengefortheirinstrumentalroleintherun-uptotheIraqiwar.
Sofar,sogood.Itwould,however,beamistaketonowsitbackandrelax.Becominganuclearpowerrequiresthreeelements:nuclearmaterial,acarriersystemwithwhichtotransportthedeadlycargo,andthecapabilitytobuildnuclearwarheads.IftheUnitedStatesNationalIntelligenceCouncilcalculatedcorrectly,Iranhasonlyputthelatteronice-andnamelyinreactiontothetriumphantadvanceoftheAmericanarmyinIraq.Asfortheothertwoelements-uraniumenrichmentandtheconstructionofmid-rangemissiles-Iranhascontinuedtopursuethemwithdiligence.Inthemeantime,powerrelationsinthegulfhavedramaticallybeentransformedinfavorofIran.TheUSisuptoitsneckinthequagmireofIraqwhileTehranistakingontheroleasthedominantregionalpower.ChinaboughtitselfintoIranianoilproductionwithmulti-billiondollarinvestmentsanddelivers,asdoesRussia,modernmilitarytechnology.AmutualassistancepacthaslikewiseboundSyriaandthelongarmofTehranreachesfarintoIraq,Lebanon,PalestineandAfghanistan.SkyrocketingoilpricesaddedtherestofwhatwasneededfortheMullahstoconsolidatetheirpower.
PreviouslyleviedsanctionsfromtheUnitedNationshadnotbeentakenwithsustainableimpressingthepowerholdersinTehran.AslongastheymanagetopitChinaandRussiaagainsttheUnitedStatesandconductbusinessvigorouslywithEuropeancountriessuchasGermanyandItaly,theywillbeabletoadvancetheirnuclearprogramwithouthindrance.Then,itisonlyamatteroftimeanddeterminationbeforetheyactuallybuildthebomb.
That,however,wouldhavedramaticconsequencesfarbeyondtheregionitself.AlreadynowitisclearthatEgyptandSaudiArabiawillnotcometotermswiththenuclear-backeddominanceofIran.ThesamegoesforTurkey.There,thefollowingrhetoriccanbeheard:IfIranbecomesarmedwithnuclearweapons,TurkeywilleitherjointheEuropeanUnionorbecomeanuclearpoweritself.Anucleararmsraceinthisunstableandconflict-ladenregionequatestoplayingwithfire.Lastbutnotleast,anatomicbombinthehandsofanextremistregime,whichpropagatestheobliterationoftheJewishstate,wouldproveanincalculableriskforIsrael.
TheAmericanNationalIntelligenceCouncilassumesthatacost-benefitcalculationdrivesnuclearpolicyinTehranratherthananunconditionalreachforthebomb,“indisregardofpolitical,economicandmilitarycosts.”Hewhowishestoavoidthefatalalternative:“tobombortoaccept”,mustthereforefocusonacombinationofoverturesandpressurewhendealingwithIran.Untilnow,bothhaveonlybeenpursuedhalf-heartedly.Inorderforachancetoexistatadiplomaticsolution,theUnitedStatesmustlookbeyondhershadowandofferTehrandirectnegotiationsforapoliticalarrangement.ThisincludesstrictinternationalcontroloftheIraniannuclearprogramaswellasrelinquishingproductionofweapons-gradematerial,amutualrejectionofforceandanofferofsecurity-politicalandenergycooperation.Inthecourseofsuchnegotiations,Iran’sactualmotivesandgoalswillbecomeapparent.ThesupportoftheinternationalcommunityforhardsanctionsagainstIrancanonlybewonalongthispath,inthecasethattheregimeultimatelywithdrawsitselffromadiplomaticagreement.