CAN KENTUCKY BECOME A TRUE BLUE STATE? By DrTed

In the last decade, Kentuckians have tended to vote Republican in federal elections.  Before then, Kentucky was a true blue state. 

Can Kentucky revert to its old ways in the coming years? 

Virginia and North Carolina did.  So then could Kentucky, one would expect.

 

This change is seemingly in the numbers, with Democrats far exceeding Republicans in voter registration.  This difference between registered Democratic and Republican voters is the highest it has been in decades. 

 

Demographic data from the 2008 election suggest that Kentucky might continue its trends of voting (mostly) red in federal elections.  That is because the typical Kentucky voter resembles the typical McCain voter.

 

The prototypical McCain voter tends to be over 45, living in suburban or rural communities, a non-union member, gun owner, and a White Evangelical Christian.

The demographic data (from exit polls) show that 55% of the Kentucky voters are over 45 years of age (which is slightly higher than the national average.) 

 

In addition, 91% of Kentuckly's voters live in either suburban or rural communities. Correspondingly, only 9% of its voters live in urban communities, which one is of the lowest percentages for this category in the nation. 

 

Moreover, White Evangelical/Born-again Christians compose 45% of the Kentucky’s electorate.  Twenty-six percent of the nation’s voters claim to belong to this voting bloc.  (While data could not be found concerning gun owners and non-union voters in Kentucky, I expect that both groups represent a majority of Kentucky voters.)

 

What then, you ask, about North Carolina and Virginia?  Are they not both rural states with high numbers of White Evangelical Christians?

 

This profile is not accurate for the prototypical Virginia voter, who tends to live in urban/suburban communities. Only 28% of Virginia voters label themselves as Born-again Christians.

 

The profile of a typical North Carolina voter corresponds to the typical Kentucky voter, except for two important demographic categories.   A larger percentage of North Carolina voters live in urban areas than do Kentucky voters.   A North Carolina voter is more likely to have college and post-college degrees than is a Kentucky voter. 

 

(Interestingly, voters without high-school degrees, and voters with college and post-college degrees were more likely to vote for Obama than for McCain.)

 

It is not very likely then that Kentucky will become a true blue state.

 

But then again, I never dreamed in 2004 that Barrack Obama would be our President in 2009.